大宗压力显现，股指高位巨震

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The A-share market is expected to experience a short - term correction, while the mid - term performance depends on economic and policy efforts. A long - term and stable bull market also requires fundamental support [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. One - week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - Next - week View: The stock market faces short - term adjustment pressure. The recent sharp correction will calm the market, and the weakening PMI in January indicates that the domestic economic recovery is still full of twists and turns [10] - This - week Key Events: - On January 26, Premier Li Qiang held a symposium to listen to opinions on the "Government Work Report" [11] - On January 27, it was announced that the industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year [12] - On January 29, Chinese leaders met with the British Prime Minister, and both sides agreed to develop a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership [13][14] - On January 29, the State Council issued a plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [15] - On January 30, it was reported that in December 2025, China had a goods trade surplus of 853.3 billion yuan and a service trade deficit of 96.6 billion yuan [16] 2. One - week Market Quotes Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: From January 26 to January 30, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.65%, with emerging markets (+1.80%) > developed markets (+0.50%) > frontier markets (-0.13%). The South Korean stock market rose 8.0%, while the Canadian stock market fell 2.03% [17] - Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview: From January 26 to January 30, Chinese equities declined. In terms of different markets, Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.0636 trillion yuan, a decrease of 264.4 billion yuan compared with last week. Most of the A - share broad - based indexes fell, with the Shanghai 50 Index rising 1.13% and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index falling 3.59% [20] - Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most of the global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the energy industry leading (+4.16%) and the optional consumption industry having the largest decline (-1.33%). In the Chinese market, the energy industry had the largest increase (+6.42%), and the optional consumption industry lagged (-4.21%) [23] - Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries: Among the A - share CITIC primary industries, 10 rose (20 last week) and 20 fell (10 last week). The petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest increase (+6.92%), and the national defense and military industry had the largest decline (-7.60%) [24] - Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles: The large - cap value style outperformed this week [29] - Overview of Index Futures Basis: Information about the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [30][33] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - Broad - based Index Valuation: The report provides the PE and PB of various broad - based indexes this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [40] - Primary Industry Valuation: The report provides the PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [41] - Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium: The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERP of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [42][47] - Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indexes: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 8.35%, and in 2026 to 9.63%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 25.66%, and in 2026 was raised to 23.00%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 27.37%, and in 2026 was raised to 24.03% [48] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: This week, the 10 - year Treasury yield declined, the 1 - year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.1, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.96 [57] - Trading - type Capital Tracking: The average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 50.6 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 14.7 billion yuan [56] - Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 13.2 billion shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.2 billion shares [61][65] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - Supply Side: The tire operating rate recovered after the Spring Festival [67] - Consumption Side: The second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally [73] - Inflation Observation: The prices of production materials declined, while the prices of agricultural products rebounded [83]