盘面高位调整，储能容量电价机制落地

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for lithium carbonate [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - level adjustment of the market and the implementation of the energy storage capacity price mechanism. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be more likely to rise than fall due to demand support and mining end disturbances. It is advisable to take a bullish approach and look for opportunities to go long at low levels after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [1][2] - The introduction of the national - level policy on the grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism is favorable for the energy storage yield and installed capacity, and may increase the tolerance of energy storage for lithium carbonate prices. However, the rise in lithium carbonate prices may put pressure on the power end [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.盘面高位调整，储能容量电价机制落地 - This week (1/23 - 1/30), lithium salt prices dropped significantly. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 18.4% to 148,200 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6.1% and 6.3% to 160,500 and 157,000 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated accordingly [11] - On the supply side, Sigma Lithium's mining restart is on schedule, expected to be completed in January 2026. From late January to February, some lithium salt plants have annual maintenance plans. SMM predicts that the lithium carbonate output in February will be 81,930 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - On the demand side, the downstream cell production schedule in February decreased month - on - month. In February, the lithium battery production schedule was 172GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease. Among them, lithium iron phosphate was 139GWh, a 10% month - on - month decrease; ternary was 26.5GWh, a 15% month - on - month decrease; power was 105GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease; energy storage was 57GWh, a 9% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - This week, the total inventory of the SMM lithium carbonate sample decreased by 1,414 tons month - on - month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to reduce inventory in February. Currently, the upstream inventory is only 5 days, the mid - stream inventory has decreased to 12.7 days, and the downstream inventory has increased to 10.8 days [1][12] - After the sharp drop in the market on Friday, there were many limit - down orders. The pre - holiday stockpiling demand was largely released, and it is expected that the pre - holiday stockpiling demand will moderately weaken [1][12] - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued a notice to establish a grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism, which will be promoted nationwide. It is estimated that a capacity price of 165 yuan/kilowatt can increase the energy storage IRR by 4 - 5pct, and energy storage demand may be more optimistic [2][13][14] 3.2.周内行业要闻回顾 - The lithium carbonate futures and options of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders, which helps the industry chain enterprises manage risks and promotes the pricing model to shift to the "Chinese price" [16] - India plans to introduce incentives to encourage enterprises to build lithium - nickel processing plants [17] - The rise in lithium prices has brought potential opportunities for Develop's Pioneer Dome project, and the company is evaluating various development plans [17] 3.3.产业链重点高频数据监测 3.3.1.资源端：锂精矿价格随盘面波动 - Lithium concentrate prices fluctuate with the market [19] 3.3.2.锂盐：盘面高位回落，基差波动较大 - The lithium salt market has fallen from a high level, and the basis has fluctuated greatly [22] 3.3.3.下游中间品：成本驱动下游价格上涨 - The prices of downstream intermediate products are rising driven by costs [47] 3.3.4.终端：关注产业链负反馈情况 - Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain at the terminal [58]