Changjiang Securities·2026-02-01 13:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [10] Core Insights - Starting from April 2025, the main raw material for air conditioners, copper, has entered a new price increase cycle, with prices accelerating since mid-November. As of January 14, 2026, the LME copper spot settlement price reached $13,335 per ton, reflecting a 53.5% increase compared to the beginning of 2025. In response to cost pressures, several air conditioning companies, including Aux, Midea, and others, have announced price increases ranging from 3% to 8% [2][4][16] - The report analyzes the impact of rising copper prices on air conditioner gross margins and evaluates the effectiveness of manufacturers' price increase strategies based on a review of the previous raw material price increase cycle [4][16] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the resumption of the copper price increase cycle starting in April 2025 and its implications for air conditioning manufacturers, highlighting the need for price adjustments in response to rising costs [4][16] Theoretical Impact of Rising Copper Prices on Air Conditioner Profitability - Raw material costs account for approximately 54% of air conditioner production costs, with copper, steel, and plastic comprising 22%, 12%, and 10% respectively. The high proportion of copper makes air conditioners particularly sensitive to copper price fluctuations. The report estimates that if copper prices rise by 15%, 30%, and 50%, air conditioner gross margins would theoretically decline by 2.1, 4.2, and 7.1 percentage points respectively [5][20][25] Effectiveness of Price Increases to Mitigate Cost Pressures - The report suggests that manufacturers would need to raise product factory prices by 3.0%, 5.9%, and 9.8% to effectively counteract the pressure on profitability from copper price increases of 15%, 30%, and 50% respectively. A review of the previous raw material price increase cycle (2020Q2-2022Q1) indicates that while price increases can mitigate cost pressures in the short term, sustained rapid increases in raw material prices may still pose challenges to profitability [6][36][47] Investment Recommendations - In light of the current cost uncertainties, the report recommends focusing on leading white goods companies with significant cost advantages and well-integrated supply chains, specifically highlighting Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric as key investment opportunities [7][56]