1月理财规模“超季节性”下降1100亿元

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the wealth - management scale continued to decline, with a monthly decrease of 1.142 billion yuan, contrary to market expectations of a rebound. Looking ahead, before the Spring Festival in February, the scale may show a moderate growth trend [1][9]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, while the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [2][35]. - Interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds compressed their durations, while medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased their durations [3][44]. - The supply scale of government bonds increased significantly in early February, with a planned issuance of 906.7 billion yuan in the first week of February [50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - Month Wealth - Management Scale Decline 3.1.1 Weekly Scale - From January 19 - 23, the wealth - management scale continued to rise, with a week - on - week increase of 7.41 billion yuan to 33.35 trillion yuan, higher than the historical same - period level. From January 26 - 30, due to the drive of funds returning to the balance sheet, the scale decreased by 178.8 billion yuan to 33.18 trillion yuan, and the decline was more than seasonal [8]. 3.1.2 Wealth - Management Risks - Product net values continued to rise, and the proportion of negative yields remained low. The proportion of all products with negative yields in the interval remained low at 0.96%. The wealth - management break - even level slightly increased, with the break - even rate of all products rising by 0.03 pct to 0.2%. The proportion of products with unmet performance targets continued to decline, with the non - performance rate of all wealth - management products dropping by 0.3 pct to 23.9% [15][24]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: Inter - bank Continued to Decline - From January 26 - 30, affected by cross - month demand, capital prices seasonally increased. The average weekly trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the average overnight proportion also decreased. The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [32][35]. 3.3 Interest - Rate and Credit - Type Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds Compressed Durations - From January 26 - 30, due to insufficient incremental information at the end of the month, institutions were still cautious in their operations. The average weekly durations of interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds decreased. The durations of medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased [42][44]. 3.4 Government Bond Supply Scale Increased Significantly in Early February - In the first week of February (February 2 - 6), the planned issuance of government bonds was 906.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week. The estimated net payment scale of government bonds was about 460.4 billion yuan, still higher than the weekly median payment level since 2025. In terms of different types of bonds, the net payment scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased [50][53].