负债压力可控，存单发行清淡：存单周报（0126-0201）-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Bank liability is stable, and credit delivery slows down during the Spring Festival month, so the pressure on CD price increase is expected to be limited. The supply pressure of CDs is controllable due to high retention rate of general deposit maturity at the beginning of the year, light CD issuance, and possible slowdown in credit delivery. The demand from small and medium - sized institutions is stable, and the central bank's long - term liquidity injection is active, with low risk of significant capital fluctuations. National and joint - stock bank CDs may fluctuate in the low - level range of 1.6 - 1.65% with little price - increasing pressure [2][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply: Net financing continues to be weak, and the term structure remains relatively short - This week (January 26 - February 1), the CD issuance scale was 3771.20 million yuan, and the net financing was - 512.80 million yuan (last week was - 1178.40 million yuan). The proportion of state - owned banks' issuance decreased from 13% to 7%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 31% to 43%. The weighted term of CD issuance narrowed to 5.87 months (previously 5.88 months). - Next week (February 2 - February 8), the maturity scale will decline to 1671.20 million yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 2584.70 million yuan. Maturities are mainly concentrated in joint - stock banks and city commercial banks, with higher amounts for 3M and 6M CDs [2][5]. Demand: Small and medium - sized banks and other institutions are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rate fluctuates upward - In the secondary market, large - scale banks sold a net of 211.41 million yuan this week; small and medium - sized banks bought a net of 131.53 million yuan; the net purchase of wealth management products increased from 10.34 million yuan to 57.57 million yuan; the net sale of money market funds narrowed from 872.57 million yuan to 309.13 million yuan; other institutions bought a net of 511.26 million yuan, an increase of 232.95 million yuan from last week. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose to 91%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 82% to 87%, rural commercial banks from 92% to 93%, state - owned banks from 92% to 93%, and joint - stock banks from 87% to 88% [2][17]. Valuation: The primary and secondary pricing of CDs fluctuates at a low level - Primary pricing: The weighted issuance rate of 1 - year joint - stock bank CDs decreased from 1.61% to 1.60%. The 3M CDs of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp from last week, 9M by 3bp, and the 1 - year variety continued to fluctuate at a low level. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks remained around 2BP, at the 8% historical quantile. The 1 - year spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks was 8.67BP, at around the 9% quantile; the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks was 1.67BP, close to the 1% quantile. - Secondary yield: The yield of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated at a low level. Except for the 3M term, the secondary yields of other terms of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated at a low level. The 1M and 6M varieties increased by 4BP and 1BP respectively from last week, while the 3M, 9M, and 1Y varieties remained basically unchanged. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs was 1.75bp, at the 8% historical quantile [2][20][31]. Comparison: The spreads between CDs and treasury bonds, and CDs and policy - bank bonds narrow slightly - The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 narrowed from 10.89BP to 6.79BP; the spread with the 15 - day moving average of R007 narrowed from 6.07BP to 2.22BP; the spread between CDs and treasury bonds narrowed from 31.31BP to 29.51BP, and the quantile dropped to around 17%; the spread between CDs and policy - bank bonds narrowed from 1.91BP to 1.17BP, and the quantile dropped to around 0%. In addition, the spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term commercial paper and CDs widened from 7.71BP to 8.66BP, and the quantile rose to around 43% [2][39].