债市微观结构跟踪：交易情绪回升至中性以上

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" reading continued to rise to 57%, up 3 percentage points from the previous period. Some indicators' positions increased, while others decreased. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% [15][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The micro - trading thermometer reading continued to rise to 57%. The positions of institutional leverage, policy spread, bond fund profit - taking pressure, stock - bond ratio, and overall market turnover rate increased by 48, 18, 18, 16, and 12 percentage points respectively. The TL/T long - short ratio and commodity ratio positions also rose by 11 percentage points. However, the position values of fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio, and listed company wealth management buying volume decreased by 33, 18, and 15 percentage points respectively [3][15]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 7 (35%) were in the neutral range, and 6 (30%) were in the cold range. The long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio and listed company wealth management buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range; institutional leverage and policy spread rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover rate rose from the cold range to the neutral range [4][21]. 3.3. Long - term Treasury Bond Trading Volume Ratio - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range dropped to 0%. The overall market turnover rate position increased by 12 percentage points, rising from the cold range to the neutral range; institutional leverage position increased by 48 percentage points, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio position decreased by 18 percentage points, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range [6][22]. 3.4. Bond Fund Profit - taking Pressure - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 13%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 63%. The listed company wealth management buying volume position decreased by 15 percentage points to 58%, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume position decreased by 33 percentage points to 31%, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range [7][26]. 3.5. Policy Spread - The yield of 3 - year treasury bonds continued to decline, the policy spread narrowed by 2bp to 0bp, and the position value rose slightly by 18 percentage points to 76%, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned development spread remained the same as the previous period, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp, and the average spread of the three widened slightly by 1bp to 17bp. Its position value decreased by 4 percentage points to 61%, still in the neutral range [8][32]. 3.6. Stock - Bond Ratio - Among the ratio indicators, the proportion of indicators in the cold range remained at 75%, and the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%. The position values of stock - bond, commodity, and real estate ratios increased by 16, 11, and 18 percentage points to 57%, 56%, and 51% respectively, all still in the neutral range [9][34].