Huaxin Securities·2026-02-01 15:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of February 1, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The competitiveness of China's active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) exports is supported by technological advancements, with a focus on supply variables [2] - Significant transactions in the industry highlight the ongoing validation of clinical data for innovative drugs, with multiple major deals occurring in early 2026 [3] - Leading companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [4] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming domestically, while the oral GLP-1 market is rapidly expanding in the U.S. [5] - The market value of oral autoimmune drugs is gaining attention, with promising results from key clinical trials [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical and healthcare product exports reached $111.34 billion, growing by 3.14%, with API exports accounting for $42.87 billion, representing 76.8% of total Western medicine exports [2] - The report notes a 10.6% decline in pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. due to tariff impacts, while the EU and emerging markets saw increases of 11.38% and 4.49%, respectively [2] Major Transactions and Innovations - In January 2026, a significant licensing agreement between CSPC Pharmaceutical and AstraZeneca was announced, involving a $1.2 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to $3.5 billion [3] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous clinical data validation for authorized products to secure future milestone payments [3] Small Nucleic Acid Developments - Leading companies like China Biologic Products are acquiring innovative firms in the small interfering RNA (siRNA) sector, indicating a strategic focus on this area [4] - The report highlights successful clinical trial results for small nucleic acid drugs, which are attracting more attention from major pharmaceutical companies [4] GLP-1 Market Dynamics - A new pricing structure for GLP-1 products is emerging in China, with the anticipated launch of generic versions expected to further influence market prices [5] - The report notes that oral GLP-1 drugs are gaining traction in the U.S., with significant prescription numbers reported shortly after launch [5] Oral Autoimmune Drug Developments - Takeda's new oral TYK2 inhibitor has shown positive results in key clinical trials for psoriasis, indicating a potential breakthrough in oral autoimmune treatments [6] - The report mentions ongoing developments in oral autoimmune drugs targeting various pathways, with several domestic companies advancing their clinical trials [6] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the API cycle reversal, such as Chuan Ning Biological and Guobang Pharmaceutical, and highlights the potential of small nucleic acid drugs and oral autoimmune treatments [8]