Changjiang Securities·2026-02-01 15:19Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The dye industry has been at a low point for several years, but there are signs of recovery in the intermediate and dye markets [6][11] - Recent price increases in disperse and reactive dyes indicate a potential upward trend, with disperse black ECT300% averaging 19 CNY/kg (up 5.56%) and reactive black WNN150% averaging 23 CNY/kg (up 4.55%) [2][6] - The dye intermediate market is showing warmth, supported by rising raw material prices, leading companies to raise their product prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Disperse dye capacity in China is 563,000 tons/year with a CR3 of 59% and CR5 of 77%, while reactive dye capacity is 455,000 tons/year with a CR3 of 55% and CR5 of 76% [11][12] - Historical price trends show that leading companies have significant pricing power, with past price increases driven by supply chain disruptions and environmental regulations [11][12] Industry Dynamics - The dye intermediate sector has high environmental and technical barriers, making it crucial in the dye industry. The production of intermediates like H acid involves complex processes that are environmentally sensitive [11][12] - The industry is expected to benefit from stricter environmental regulations, which may lead to further optimization of supply and a potential recovery from the current low point [11][12] Historical Context - Historical price peaks for disperse and reactive dyes exceeded 50,000 CNY/ton, but the industry has faced prolonged low prices since 2019 due to overcapacity [11][12] - Recent price increases for intermediates, such as the rise of reducing agents from 25,000 CNY/ton to 38,000 CNY/ton, suggest a potential recovery in the dye market [11][12]