波动不改趋势，静待第二波重估

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant volatility in gold and silver prices, driven by three main factors: a shift in macroeconomic narratives, negative feedback from leveraged funds, and a transition from speculative trading to value reassessment. It suggests that the bubble in silver prices between $70-$90 per ounce may have been deflated, but the underlying logic remains intact [2][4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that silver futures on the COMEX experienced a dramatic drop, with prices falling over 30% at one point and closing down 25.5% at $85.25 per ounce. The decline is attributed to macroeconomic changes, particularly the nomination of Kevin Walsh as a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has shaken market confidence in aggressive bets against the dollar. The report emphasizes that the transition from speculative trading to value reassessment is underway, with expectations for silver to outperform gold and copper in the coming quarters [4][2]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that the trends for copper and aluminum remain unchanged, with a recommendation to position for gains post-holiday. It notes that the recent price fluctuations are primarily due to a weaker dollar and heightened geopolitical risks. The report provides data showing that copper inventories increased by 0.24% week-on-week and 106% year-on-year, while aluminum inventories rose by 2.44% week-on-week and 24.67% year-on-year. The report suggests that despite short-term volatility, copper and aluminum are expected to rise in the medium term due to solid fundamentals [4][22]. Energy and Minor Metals - The report discusses the lithium market, indicating that 2026 may be a pivotal year for lithium rights, with a second wave of market activity anticipated. It highlights the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, particularly in light of China's export controls on dual-use items to Japan. The report suggests that the long-term demand for rare earth materials is expected to recover, driven by advancements in robotics and other applications [4][22][24]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks to watch, including Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining in the precious metals sector. For industrial metals, it suggests focusing on companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Jiangxi Copper. In the energy metals sector, it highlights companies such as Tianhua New Energy and Ganfeng Lithium [4][20].