基金市场跟踪与 ETF 策略配置月报-20260201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 31, 2026, the total number of funds in the market increased by 104 to 13,722, while the total net asset value decreased by 452.4 billion yuan to 37.22 trillion yuan. Growth - type funds outperformed value - type funds in January 2026 [3][7]. - As of January 31, 2026, there were 1,430 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, an increase of 28 from the previous period. The total asset management scale decreased by 555.748 billion yuan to 5.46 trillion yuan, and the total share decreased by 92.652 billion shares to 3.28 trillion shares. Commodity - type ETFs had a higher overall return in January, while bond - type ETFs had the worst performance [4][18]. - The industry ETF rotation strategy based on main funds and the PB - ROE framework both achieved positive excess returns compared to the CSI 300 Index in January 2026 and since 2023 [5][40][50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Market Tracking 3.1.1 Market Overview - As of January 31, 2026, the number of funds increased by 104, and the total net asset value decreased by 452.4 billion yuan. Hybrid, bond, and stock - type funds had the highest proportion in terms of quantity, while money - market, bond, and stock - type funds had the highest proportion in terms of scale [7]. - In January 2026, the number of stock - type funds increased by 49, and the scale of stock - type and bond - type funds decreased by 552.001 billion yuan and 88.818 billion yuan respectively [11]. 3.1.2 Fund Performance - From January 1 to 31, 2026, the returns of value, balanced, and growth fund indexes were 3.92%, 6.10%, and 7.02% respectively, all outperforming the CSI 300 Index. Growth - type funds outperformed value - type funds [13]. - The differences among large - cap, mid - cap, and small - cap fund indexes were small in January 2026, with mid - cap funds slightly outperforming large - cap and small - cap funds, and all outperforming the CSI 300 Index [13]. - The median return of all funds in January 2026 was 2.53%, and 94.84% of funds achieved positive returns. The top - performing fund was SDIC UBS Silver Futures A, with a gain of 61.60% in both January and year - to - date [16]. 3.2 ETF Market Tracking 3.2.1 ETF New Products - In January 2026, 33 ETFs were newly listed, including 3 science - and - technology innovation board chip ETFs and 30 other stock - type ETFs. 27 ETFs were newly established, with a total issuance scale of 16.57 billion yuan [20]. 3.2.2 ETF Product Classification Performance - Commodity - type ETFs had a median return of 18.61% in January, bond - type ETFs had the lowest median return of 0.25%, and stock - type ETFs had a median return of 4.74%, outperforming cross - border ETFs. Stock - type ETFs had the highest internal deviation in January [4][24]. - Among stock - type ETFs in January, gold - related and mining ETFs performed well, while bank - related ETFs performed poorly. The average share change of stock - type ETFs was a decrease of 108.9666 million shares, with chemical and software ETFs having significant share increases and CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETFs having significant share decreases [25]. - Among bond - type ETFs in January, the convertible bond ETF had the highest increase of 5.90%, and the science - innovation bond ETF had a decrease of 0.01%. As of January 31, 2026, the Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing ETF had the largest scale of 70.223 billion yuan [29]. - Among cross - border ETFs in January, the China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF had the highest increase of 45.09%, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF had the highest decrease of 4.20%. The year - to - date performance was similar [31]. - Among commodity - type ETFs in January, the gold ETF had an increase of 19.11%, and the soybean meal ETF had the smallest increase of 1.69%. As of January 31, 2026, the Huaan Gold ETF had the largest scale of 93.985 billion yuan [35]. 3.3 ETF Strategy Tracking 3.3.1 Industry ETF Rotation Based on Main Funds - The strategy focused on non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and steel in January 2026. The cumulative return in January 2026 was 9.01%, with an excess return of 7.36% compared to the CSI 300 Index. Since 2023, the cumulative return was 61.84%, with an excess return of 40.28% compared to the CSI 300 Index [5][40][42]. 3.3.2 Industry ETF Rotation under the PB - ROE Framework - The strategy focused on communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and transportation in January 2026. The cumulative return in January 2026 was 2.83%, with an excess return of 1.18% compared to the CSI 300 Index. Since 2023, the cumulative return was 29.03%, with an excess return of 7.47% compared to the CSI 300 Index [5][50][51]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For the industry preference of main funds in February 2026, the steel, coal, and non - ferrous metal industries are favored, and the corresponding ETFs are their industry ETFs. - Based on the industry PB - ROE situation and supplementary indicators, the ETF rotation strategy under the PB - ROE framework recommends paying attention to the non - ferrous metal, transportation, and public utilities industries in February, and the corresponding ETFs are their industry ETFs [6][57].