Changjiang Securities·2026-02-01 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [14] Core Insights - Since Q4 2025, the growth rate of the express delivery industry has been declining, with growth rates of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 2.3% in October, November, and December 2025 respectively. This slowdown has accelerated the differentiation within the industry, with leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express outperforming second-tier competitors [2][7][23] - Key factors influencing the industry include: 1) The introduction of precise tax audits for e-commerce, increasing compliance costs for merchants; 2) The "anti-involution" measures in express delivery, which have set a clear bottom line for competition and raised logistics costs [7][30][36] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to experience a clearer turning point in differentiation, with leading companies likely to continue gaining market share and potentially benefiting from volume, profit, and valuation improvements [8][42] Summary by Sections E-commerce Compliance Costs - The e-commerce tax collection has been strengthened, significantly increasing compliance costs for merchants. The introduction of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" in June 2025 marks a new phase of tax compliance in the e-commerce sector [30][33] - The tax burden for online merchants has increased, particularly for those with annual revenues exceeding 5 million, as the advantages of non-compliance diminish [30][34] Anti-Involution Measures - The "anti-involution" measures have stabilized express delivery prices, leading to improved profitability for express companies. Since September 2025, the price growth rate has turned positive, enhancing the single-ticket profitability of express services [36][37] - The focus on maintaining a safe bottom line in the industry is expected to continue, with the postal administration prioritizing the regulation of "involution-style" competition in 2026 [36] Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is anticipated to return to single-digit growth rates, with a clearer differentiation among companies. Leading firms with strong product value propositions and solid financial structures are expected to gain market share [42] - The report highlights the potential for valuation premiums to recover for leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, as their market share and profit expectations improve [42][46]