1月PMI点评：从以价换量到以量换价？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped 0.8 pct to 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also fell below the prosperity - decline line, weaker than the seasonal level. The overall economic stability - growth approach may shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price", and the improvement of the fundamentals requires long - term repair. There are still some bright spots, such as the price increase of commodities driving up the overall price and the continuous release of growth potential in equipment manufacturing and high - end technology manufacturing. The bond market may react to the weak data but is unlikely to have a continuous repair market, and the view of a bond market oscillation is maintained in the near term [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Manufacturing PMI Situation - Production and Demand: The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 fell 0.8 pct to 49.3%, lower than the Wind consensus forecast. The production index dropped 1.1 pct to 50.6% but remained above the prosperity - decline line. The import index rose 0.3 pct to 47.3%, while the procurement index fell 2.4 pct to 48.7%. The new order index decreased 1.6 pct to 49.2%, and the new export order index dropped 1.2 pct to 47.8% [4][6]. - Inventory: The finished - product inventory increased 0.4 pct month - on - month and 2.1 pct year - on - year to 48.6%. The difference between the "finished - product inventory - on - hand orders" index widened 1.3 pct to 3.5 pct, and whether subsequent consumer demand can digest the inventory remains to be seen [6]. - Price: The raw material purchase price index was 56.1%, up 3 pct month - on - month and 6.6 pct year - on - year, reaching a two - year high. The ex - factory price index was 50.6%, rising above the critical point for the first time in 20 months. However, the pressure on corporate profit repair re - emerged, and the future price downward pressure still exists [6]. - Enterprise Scale and Industry: Among different enterprise scales, large - scale enterprises' prosperity declined slightly by 0.5 pct to 50.3%, still in the expansion range; medium - and small - scale enterprises' prosperity declined significantly, dropping 1.1 pct and 1.2 pct to 48.7% and 47.4% respectively, below the prosperity - decline line. Among industries, the four basic industries all declined, but the equipment manufacturing and high - end technology manufacturing industries maintained certain resilience, with their prosperity still in the expansion range [6]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI Situation - The non - manufacturing business activity index in January 2026 fell 0.8 pct to 49.4%. The construction business activity index dropped 4 pct to 48.8%, and the construction new order index fell 7.3 pct to 40.1%, reaching the lowest level since the second half of 2025. The service business activity index decreased 0.2 pct to 49.5%. The financial service - related industries had a relatively high prosperity level, while the real estate industry's business activity index dropped below 40%, with overall weak prosperity [6].