Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the corn supply - demand pattern is basically balanced, and it may maintain a range - bound operation throughout the year. The mid - to - long - term trading strategy is to maintain a range - trading mindset, with low - buying before policy - related grain source release and high - selling opportunities after the release. The support level for the futures market is 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2][255]. - For the pig market in 2026, it is trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction under the situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply increase is coming to an end, and the signal of capacity reduction has been sent. Near - month contracts will trade based on the basis - regression logic, while far - month contracts will trade the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction driven by policies, focusing on the actual changes in sow inventory [2]. - In the egg market in 2026, it is also trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction under the situation of weak reality and strong expectation. In the short - to - medium term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to reverse completely. In the long term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Before the over - culling of laying hens is confirmed, futures contracts may continue the trading path of narrowing the premium, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. After over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market can be considered [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Summary 1.1 Spot Market - Corn: The domestic corn market has gone through five stages, including the protected - price purchase stage, the temporary storage purchase stage, the market - pricing stage, the stage of reaching a historical high, and the stage of price decline. In 2025, the domestic corn price first rose and then fell, with the price rising from 2100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2450 yuan/ton in the middle of the year and then dropping to around 2200 yuan/ton. The international corn price has also experienced different stages, and in 2025, the global corn supply was still abundant, putting pressure on the price to decline [11][19]. - Pigs: The pig price cycle can be divided into six cycles before and after the African swine fever in 2018. In 2025, the pig market's increased capacity continued to be realized, with the supply - demand imbalance pressuring the pig price to decline. The national average price fluctuated between 14 - 16 yuan/kg from January to June and further declined after July, with self - breeding and self - raising falling into losses again in October [26][33]. - Eggs: The egg market has gone through three major cycles since 2013. In 2025, the egg price declined, with a seasonal rebound in the third quarter and a further decline in the fourth quarter. The average inventory of laying hens increased, and the supply pressure was significant [37][41]. 1.2 Futures Market - Corn: The Dalian corn futures have gone through four stages, including the rising and high - level operation stage, the high - level decline stage, the stage of reaching a historical high, and the high - level decline stage. In 2025, the Dalian corn futures first rose and then fell. The CBOT corn futures also showed a downward trend in 2025 [46][61]. - Pigs: Since the listing of pig futures in January 2021, the futures price has been declining with a narrowing amplitude. In 2025, the pig futures market traded based on the logic of increased capacity and supply realization, with the price falling and breaking through the breeding cost in the fourth quarter [69][73]. - Eggs: Since the listing of egg futures in November 2013, they have shown a large - range cyclical operation. In 2025, the egg futures price declined overall, with a rebound in November due to the expectation of capacity reduction [78][83]. 1.3 Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of corn futures increased compared with the previous year, and the open interest also increased significantly. The trading volume of pig futures increased slightly, but the turnover decreased. The trading volume and turnover of egg futures increased significantly, and the open interest reached a record high [88][90][96]. 2. Supply Pattern Analysis of the Breeding Industry Chain 2.1 Corn Market - Globally, the supply pressure of corn has decreased, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. In China, the sown area of corn in the 2025/26 season is stable, and the yield per unit area has increased. The import of corn has been restricted since August 2024, and the impact on domestic supply is currently small. The supply of corn in the 2025/26 season is expected to be basically balanced, and attention should be paid to the import policy and domestic grain substitution [97][104]. 2.2 Pig Market - The sow inventory is still above the reasonable level, and the capacity reduction process of sows is accelerating. The supply of pigs before August 2026 is still at a high level, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after August. The number of newborn piglets indicates that the supply of pigs before March 2026 is still abundant. The average slaughter weight of pigs is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the frozen - meat storage rate is at a low level. The import of pork has little impact on the domestic market, and the reserve meat purchase and release are mainly for rotation [117][121][124]. 2.3 Egg Market - The inventory of laying hens is at a historical high, and the chicken - chick replenishment was strong in the first four months of 2025 and then declined. The culling of laying hens has accelerated, but the culling age has not reached the level of over - culling. The egg - laying hen farming industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate is increasing. The supply of eggs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be abundant, and attention should be paid to the culling rhythm and intensity [139][143][148]. 3. Consumption Pattern Analysis of the Breeding Industry Chain 3.1 Corn Market - Corn consumption is mainly divided into feed consumption and industrial consumption. In 2026, the feed consumption of corn is expected to be relatively stable, and the industrial consumption is expected to increase slightly. The feed consumption of corn may decline due to the capacity reduction of the breeding industry, but the cost - performance of corn feed has increased [160]. 3.2 Pig Market - Pork consumption is relatively rigid and follows seasonal patterns. In the long term, factors such as population structure and meat consumption structure will affect pork consumption. In 2026, pork consumption will still follow seasonal patterns, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship during peak and off - peak consumption seasons [163]. 3.3 Egg Market - The total consumption of eggs is relatively stable, and the consumption structure is mainly fresh eggs. Egg consumption has obvious seasonal patterns, and the peak consumption seasons are the 'Double Festivals' in the third quarter and the period before the Spring Festival [172]. 4. Supply - Demand Situation Summary Analysis of the Breeding Industry 4.1 Corn Market - The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season has shifted to basic balance. The supply pressure globally has decreased, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. The import of corn has little impact on domestic supply in the short term. The demand for corn feed may be relatively stable, and the industrial consumption may increase slightly [176]. 4.2 Pig Market - The supply of pigs before July 2026 is still at a high level, and the capacity reduction process of sows is the key factor affecting the pig price in the second half of 2026. Pork consumption is relatively rigid and follows seasonal patterns. The supply - demand pattern of the pig market is supply - dominated, and attention should be paid to the epidemic prevention situation at the end of 2025 and the slaughter weight in 2026 [181]. 4.3 Egg Market - The supply of eggs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be abundant. The culling of laying hens has not reached the level of over - culling, and the egg price is expected to remain at a low level before the capacity reduction is confirmed. After the over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market may start [184]. 5. Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis and Outlook 5.1 Corn - The basis of corn usually operates within the range of - 100 to + 100, and when it exceeds this range, the feasibility of spot - futures arbitrage can be analyzed. Currently, the basis is at a normal level, and attention can be paid to the spot - futures arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling futures when the basis weakens to below - 200 yuan/ton [187]. 5.2 Pigs - The basis of pig futures mostly operates within the range of - 2000 to + 2000. Considering the supply situation in 2026, it is recommended to consider the reverse - spread trading opportunity of selling LH2603 and buying LH2609 [192]. 5.3 Eggs - The basis of egg futures has different characteristics in different periods. In 2026, if over - culling is confirmed, reverse - spread opportunities can be considered; if the culling is less than expected, positive - spread opportunities can be considered. Attention can also be paid to the month - to - month arbitrage opportunities of contracts around the peak consumption seasons [200]. 6. Option Analysis and Strategy Suggestions - Corn: It is expected that the corn supply - demand pattern will remain basically balanced in 2026, and it may maintain a wide - range operation. It is recommended to mainly conduct option - selling operations based on the support and resistance levels [207]. - Pigs: It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term in 2026. It is recommended to mainly sell call options at the resistance level. For far - month contracts after the LH2609 contract, if there is a large - scale capacity reduction, buying out - of - the - money call options can be considered; otherwise, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the price rallies [209]. - Eggs: It is expected that the egg price will be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term in 2026. It is recommended to mainly sell call options at the resistance level. For far - month contracts after the second quarter of 2026, if there is a large - scale capacity reduction, buying out - of - the - money call options can be considered; otherwise, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the price rallies [211]. 7. 2026 Outlook from Industry Enterprise Surveys - Different industry enterprises have different views on the 2026 market. For example, some pig - farming enterprises are not optimistic about the pig price in the first half of 2026, and some grain - storage enterprises expect the corn price to fluctuate within a certain range [212][214]. 8. Technical Analysis and Outlook 8.1 Price Seasonal Analysis - Corn: Corn prices usually show seasonal patterns. They tend to be weak in the first quarter, rise in the second quarter, fall in the third quarter, and may rebound in the fourth quarter [223]. - Pigs: Pig prices also show seasonal fluctuations. They usually rise before the Spring Festival and fall after it, reach the lowest point from March to April, rebound from May to June, rise from July to August, fall from September to October, and may rise again in the peak consumption season from November to December [227]. - Eggs: Egg prices have obvious seasonal patterns. They fall after the Spring Festival, rise slightly from March to April, fall from May to June, rise strongly from July to August, and fall from September to December [234]. 8.2 Technical Analysis - Corn: The C2605 contract of corn futures is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with the lower limit of the range at 2150 - 2200 and the upper limit at 2300 - 2350 [240]. - Pigs: The LH2603 contract of pig futures has medium - term pressure, and the LH2609 contract is in a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels [245]. - Eggs: The egg futures are in a low - level repair range. The LH2603 contract is in a triangular narrowing range, and the LH2608 contract has a strong technical trend. Attention should be paid to the direction after the range is broken [252]. 9. Summary and 2026 Operation Suggestions 9.1 Corn - The supply - demand pattern of corn in 2026 is basically balanced. The mid - to - long - term trading strategy is to maintain a range - trading mindset, with low - buying before policy - related grain source release and high - selling opportunities after the release. The support level for the futures market is 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [257][259]. 9.2 Pigs - In 2026, the pig market is trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction. Near - month contracts will trade based on the basis - regression logic, while far - month contracts will trade the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in sow inventory [261][275]. 9.3 Eggs - In 2026, the egg market is also trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction. Before the over - culling of laying hens is confirmed, futures contracts may continue the trading path of narrowing the premium, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. After over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market can be considered [276][284]. 10. Related Stock Price and Return Statistics The report provides the latest prices and year - to - date returns of related stocks in the breeding industry as of November 24, 2025 [287].
养殖饲料2026年重点关注养殖去产能“预期差”：将求岁德成，独抱深严虑
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-02-02 00:49