渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.02）-20260202

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy is expected to maintain resilience due to Trump's tax cuts and tech capital expenditures, with the Fed likely to keep interest rates unchanged amid mixed signals on employment and inflation [2] - The Eurozone is experiencing weak recovery, with uncertainties stemming from geopolitical issues, particularly related to Greenland, which may affect economic stability [2] Domestic Economy - China's GDP growth in Q4 2025 slowed due to high base effects, but overall growth targets were met, with a stronger supply than demand and external demand outpacing internal demand [3] - High-frequency data suggests that exports may remain strong in early 2026, supported by tax policy adjustments and semiconductor industry performance, while domestic consumption faces challenges [3] - Investment is expected to gradually recover, driven by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, although the real estate sector remains cautious [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The People's Bank of China announced a package of structural monetary policies, indicating potential for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [3] - Fiscal policies, including interest subsidies and risk-sharing measures, are aimed at stimulating economic activity and improving corporate financing willingness [4] Fixed Income Research - The bond market has shown a strong oscillation, with the central bank injecting over 9 trillion yuan into the market, and MLF operations reaching 900 billion yuan [6] - The issuance of local government bonds has lengthened in duration, reflecting strategies to take advantage of low interest rates [6] - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillation, with inflation and monetary policy being key factors influencing market dynamics [7] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical industry is witnessing significant collaborations, such as the strategic partnership between CSPC Pharmaceutical and AstraZeneca for innovative long-acting peptide drug development [8] - The SW Pharmaceutical sector index shows a TTM P/E ratio of 51.60, with a valuation premium of 259% over the CSI 300 index [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, with a focus on AI applications in healthcare and pharmaceuticals [9]