股指期货：波动加大，内强于外

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent stock market will continue to be driven by overseas factors. The market's confidence in credit currency has declined, and the belief in de - dollarization has deepened, leading to a re - evaluation of the commodity pricing anchor. However, due to the change in the Fed's stance, the re - evaluated precious metals have been re - evaluated in the opposite direction, which has a negative impact on the stock market. But domestic policies are expected to be positive, and there are still drivers for macro - economic repair and technological rise. The market may fall under external disturbances and then find support. Value stocks are expected to outperform growth stocks [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the stock market showed a volatile pattern, with small - cap style indexes performing weaker. Oil and petrochemicals, communications, and coal led the gains, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, and automobiles led the losses. The market was initially worried about large - fund policy regulation, and then the overall driving force was not obvious, mainly showing sector - based and structural theme markets. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy - chemical sectors were strong at the beginning of the week, and on Thursday, Kweichow Moutai's sharp rise drove the rebound of heavy - weight indexes. On Friday, with the sharp volatility of precious metals, related varieties adjusted significantly, suppressing risk appetite, and small - cap growth - style indexes fluctuated more significantly, while large - cap value indexes were relatively stable [1] - In the later stage, the market will be affected by overseas factors. The re - evaluation of the commodity pricing anchor and the change in the Fed's stance have a negative impact on the stock market. However, domestic policy expectations are positive, and the economic reality still has fluctuations, which supports the expectation of policy easing. The market may fall under external disturbances and then find support. Value stocks are expected to be stronger than growth stocks [2] - Factors to watch include local two - sessions and the Fed's policy direction [3] 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [4] - Trend strategy: Adopt an interval thinking. The core operating range of the IF2602 main contract is between 4592 and 4804 points; the IH2602 main contract is between 2991 and 3130 points; the IC2602 main contract is between 8042 and 8670 points; the IM2602 main contract is between 7993 and 8614 points [4] - Cross - variety strategy: Hold the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [5] 3.3 Spot Market Review - Global stock indexes: Last week, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.17% in the US stock market. In the European stock market, the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 0.79%, the German DAX Index fell 1.5%, and the French CAC40 Index fell 0.2%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.38% [9] - Domestic stock indexes: Since 2025, major domestic indexes have shown different degrees of increase. Last week, most major domestic indexes fell [11] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 Index, energy, telecommunications, and materials sectors led the gains, while information, optional consumption, and industrial sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500 Index, energy, telecommunications, and raw material sectors led the gains, while information, optional consumption, and public utility sectors led the losses [12] 3.4 Futures Market Review - Futures contract performance: Last week, the IH main contract had the largest increase, and the IC main contract had the largest amplitude among the stock index futures main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [15] - Futures basis and cross - variety ratio: The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of stock index futures main contracts [15] 3.5 Index Valuation Tracking - As of January 23, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.13 times, the CSI 300 Index was 14.12 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.5 times, the CSI 500 Index was 37.53 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 50.31 times [16][18] 3.6 Market Capital Flow Review - The report shows the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the short - term capital interest rate, and the net investment of the central bank [18][19]