特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，贵金属剧烈波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is highly uncertain due to various events such as Trump's nominations, geopolitical situations, and economic data releases [1][3][12][16] - Different sectors show different trends and risks, and investors should adjust their strategies according to market changes 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - CME raised trading margin requirements for Comex gold and silver futures, with gold non - high - risk accounts increasing from 6% to 8% and high - risk from 6.6% to 8.8%, and silver non - high - risk from 11% to 15% and high - risk from 12.1% to 16.5%, effective after next Monday's close [11] - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair led to sharp fluctuations in precious metals, with short - term liquidity release expectations declining. Short - term, precious metals are expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [3][12] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Senate passed a funding bill, but a short "technical shutdown" is still inevitable. Trump's attitude towards Iran is unclear, causing short - term geopolitical risk to decline and market risk appetite to weaken. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [13][15][16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a partial government shutdown started on January 31. Trump's nomination of Warsh as Fed Chair and high PPI data may slow down the pace of future easing and suppress stock valuations. Short - term market risk appetite is reduced [18][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Politburo meeting focused on future industries, and China and the UK signed four economic and trade cooperation documents. Due to the sharp fluctuations in precious metals, the stock index was dragged down. It is recommended to balance the long - strategy of the stock index, reduce positions in the short term, and re - enter at low levels [22][24][25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's January official manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. The bond market's reaction to the decline of other assets was limited. The probability of the subsequent market weakening in shock is relatively high. It is recommended to short after the market's upward momentum fades [26][27][28] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On January 30, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia was strong. With the cold weather, coal demand is high, and supply is actively reduced. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February. Attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation [30][31] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Algeria shipped its first batch of iron ore from the Gara Djebilet mine. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate, and the supply - demand pressure is expected to increase after the Spring Festival. It is expected to continue weak and volatile [32] 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 227.98 tons. The inventory of building materials is increasing, and the demand for rolled plates is resilient. Before the Spring Festival, the steel price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [33][36][37] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia set the February CPO reference price at $918.47/ton. The decline in the oil market on Friday was due to external disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to US biofuel policies and Malaysian palm oil inventory data [38] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar production is expected to increase by 13% to 2.96 million tons in the 25 - 26 season. The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 25/26. ICE raw sugar fell last Friday. The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be weak and volatile [39][40][43] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - A large amount of imported cotton arrived at ports, and the inventory increased. The signing volume of US cotton exports decreased, but the shipment speeded up. ICE cotton prices are expected to be weak and volatile at a low level. Before the Spring Festival, Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a long - term bullish view [45][48][49] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The threat of US copper tariffs weakened, and speculative investors reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper. Macro expectations are unstable, and copper prices are expected to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and consider long - short arbitrage opportunities [50][51][52] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The government issued a notice on improving the power generation capacity price mechanism. Tianqi Lithium lost the lawsuit against SQM's nationalization. The lithium carbonate market declined, and production and demand are expected to decrease in February. It is recommended to take a long - biased view and look for buying opportunities [53][54][57] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a contango, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to introduce recycled lead as an alternative delivery product. The lead price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59][60] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price was in a contango, and Bolivia stopped a zinc project. Glencore's zinc production increased in 2025. The zinc market is affected by macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [61][62][63] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tesla plans to build a chip factory, and Metals X's tin production increased in Q4 2025. The supply of tin is expected to ease, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [64][65][68] 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG port inventory decreased. The LPG price is affected by the Iranian situation and is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term. The high inventory and high shipment in the US may limit the upward space in the long term [69][70][71] 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA main contract price fell. The short - term decline is mainly due to macro factors, and the carbon price is expected to oscillate widely [72][73] 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count remained unchanged, and OPEC + agreed to continue to suspend the planned production increase in March. Oil prices are supported by the Iranian situation [74][75][76] 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export quotes were mostly stable. The bottle chip market followed the polyester raw materials to oscillate at a high level. The supply is tight due to plant maintenance, and the demand is relatively flat. The processing fee is expected to repair moderately [77][78][79] 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - In 2025, port cargo throughput reached 1.834 billion tons. The container freight rate is declining, but the decline is narrowing. The 04 contract is expected to fluctuate greatly in the short term, and it is recommended to take an oscillating approach [80]