格林期货早盘提示：钢材-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, and also closed down during the night session. This week, the production and inventory of the five major steel products both increased while the demand decreased. Rebar production and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot-rolled coil production increased while inventory decreased. Rigid demand has entered the seasonal off - season, winter storage demand is lower than in previous years, and the market generally expects stability after the festival. Before the festival, the supply - demand situation changes little, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and also closed down during the night session [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Ministry of Transport expects to complete more than 3.6 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment in 2025 [1]. - According to the latest production schedule report of the three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in February 2026 is 23.79 million units, a 22.1% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [1]. - Mysteel's research on the Spring Festival shutdown of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills shows that most of them shut down in February. From February 1st to February 8th, the number of shut - down steel mills was the largest, 44, accounting for 47.83%. The remaining 9 steel mills will shut down one after another after February 8th, and the latest one will shut down on February 15th [1]. - A survey of winter storage of construction steel mills in Hubei shows that in terms of price - locking policies, the leading price - locking price of construction steel in Wuhan is about 3,150 yuan/ton, and the scale of price - locking policies has decreased [1]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that in January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and the effective market demand was still insufficient, so the manufacturing prosperity level declined [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - This week, the production and inventory of the five major steel products both increased while the demand decreased. Rebar production and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot - rolled coil production increased while inventory decreased. Rigid demand has entered the seasonal off - season, winter storage demand is lower than in previous years, and the market generally expects stability after the festival. The current winter storage price - locking is basically between 3,100 - 3,150 yuan, which is roughly the same as the futures price [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Before the festival, the supply - demand situation changes little, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support level of the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the resistance level is 3,200. It is recommended to conduct band operations within the range [1].