预期现实博弈，钢价震荡运行：2026年2月钢材月报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the warm sentiment in the commodity market, steel prices once fluctuated higher. However, industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, limiting the upward driving force. In January, steel prices continued to fluctuate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [4][11][13]. - Steel inventories have started to accumulate, with differences among varieties. Construction steel inventories have increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in supply and the seasonal decline in demand, and the expectation of inventory increase during the holiday is strong. Plate inventories have slightly decreased but are still at the highest level in the same lunar period in recent years, and the de - stocking pressure remains [4][26][27]. - In the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and steel supply has continued to shrink, with differences among varieties. At the beginning of the new year, the factors suppressing production have subsided, and steel mills have continued the resumption of production. However, due to the limited improvement in profitability, the motivation for a significant increase in production is not strong, and production is expected to stabilize, with steel supply remaining stable [4][47][54]. - Steel demand has weakened, with obvious differences among varieties. Construction steel shows obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remains stable at a high level and shows good resilience. Looking forward, the downstream industries of building materials have not improved, the real - estate fundamentals continue to be sluggish, and infrastructure investment is difficult to increase in the short term due to holiday factors. The relative positive factor is the expectation of policy benefits. At the same time, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has weakened, and external demand is average under the new export policy, so there are concerns about plate demand [4][68][69]. - In conclusion, the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, which may suppress steel price trends. However, as important meetings approach, domestic policy expectations are increasing, and combined with the upward logic of resource products, the macro - positive expectations support steel prices. The operating logic of the steel market will switch between weak reality and strong expectations, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the increase in off - season inventories and changes in the macro - narrative logic [5][13][119]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - January Steel Prices Fluctuated at a Low Level - In January, the steel market entered the traditional off - season. Steel demand weakened seasonally, while supply remained stable. Industrial contradictions accumulated, and steel prices were under pressure. However, since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market and driving up the low - valued black varieties. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range [11]. - As of January 30, the futures prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3128 yuan/ton and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, up 6 yuan and 18 yuan from the end - of - last - month values. The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) in Shanghai were 3250 yuan/ton and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, down 50 yuan and 0 yuan from the end - of - last - month values [11]. - In January, the relevant price differences in the steel market operation were different from previous years. The basis weakened, the futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil still showed a contango pattern but with a lower premium than in previous years. The strength of varieties changed, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was weak and stable, the difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled plates continued to shrink, and the north - south spread of building materials showed a downward trend [12]. 3.2 Off - Season Steel Inventories Accumulated as Expected - As of the week of January 30, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 463,600 tons and an increase of 3.76%. The inventory level was slightly higher than that of the same lunar period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4616 million tons and an increase of 12.91% [20]. - Construction steel inventories continued to accumulate, while plate inventories slightly decreased, but both were higher than those of the same lunar period last year. As of the week of January 30, the inventory of construction steel was 5.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 647,600 tons and an increase of 12.82%. The total plate inventory was 7.0856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 184,000 tons and a decrease of 2.53% [26]. - In terms of inventory links, both steel social inventory and factory inventory increased. As of the week of January 30, the steel social inventory was 8.9073 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 399,500 tons and an increase of 4.70%. The factory inventory was 3.8778 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,100 tons and an increase of 1.68% [27]. - The rebar inventory inflection point has appeared, and the increase is relatively large. As of the week of January 30, the total rebar inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535,000 tons and an increase of 12.68%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in the same period, and the pressure relief was limited [33][40]. 3.3 Steel Supply Remained Stable - The steel supply continued to shrink at the end of the year due to poor profitability of steel mills. In December, the national crude steel output was 68.1774 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.298 million tons and a decrease of 5.57%. At the beginning of the new year, steel mills began to resume production, and the output data of the China Iron and Steel Association rebounded in mid - January [47]. - High - frequency data also showed that steel mills began to resume production, but the overall increase was not large, and the steel supply remained stable, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 79.00% and 85.47% respectively, slightly higher than the same period last year [53]. - The profitability of steel mills changed little in the off - season. As of the week of January 30, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 39.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% but still at a relatively low level [54]. - In terms of varieties, the production of construction steel mills was active, and the rebar output continued to rise, increasing supply pressure. The production of plate steel mills was stable, and the hot - rolled coil output remained at a high level, with high inventory and large supply pressure [60][63]. 3.4 Steel Demand Showed Seasonal Weakness 3.4.1 High - Frequency Indicators Declined Seasonally - In the off - season, steel demand weakened, and high - frequency indicators declined seasonally, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand of the five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 392,800 tons. In January, the total steel demand was 34.7449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3197 million tons and a decrease of 3.66% [68]. - Construction steel demand showed obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remained stable at a high level. In January, the cumulative demand for construction steel was 10.9401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3262 million tons and a decrease of 10.81%. The plate demand was 23.8048 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons [68]. - The rebar demand declined seasonally, and the downstream industries did not improve, so the weak demand pattern would continue. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 176,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil demand remained stable, but there were concerns about the future due to unresolved downstream contradictions [73][80]. 3.4.2 Steel Exports Changed - In December 2025, China's steel exports reached a new monthly high, with an export volume of 11.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The annual cumulative export volume was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was partly due to the "rush - to - export" effect caused by the uncertainty of the new steel export license policy in 2026 [89]. - The performance of major steel export varieties was further differentiated. Plate exports were generally strong, and long - products became the core driving force for export growth in December. The export destinations were also adjusted, with some markets showing growth and some showing decline [90][91]. - With the gradual disappearance of the "rush - to - export" effect at the end of the year, combined with weak external demand and the policy adaptation period of enterprises, it is expected that China's steel exports will face downward pressure in the first two months of 2026 [93]. 3.4.3 The Domestic Economic Growth Target was Achieved - In December, the economic data declined, but the annual economic growth target was achieved as scheduled. The annual GDP growth rate was 5%. In December, industrial performance slightly exceeded expectations, social retail sales remained weak, and fixed - asset investment continued to be weak [100]. - The real - estate market was sluggish. In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the real - estate development investment decreased by 17.20% year - on - year. The funds available to real - estate enterprises did not improve, and the decline in funds in place continued to widen [102][104][105]. - Infrastructure investment continued to decline. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of narrow - sense infrastructure (excluding electricity) and broad - sense infrastructure turned negative for the first time. In the future, infrastructure investment is expected to gradually stabilize and recover at a low level [110].