2026年1月PMI数据点评：多重因素叠加，1月宏观经济景气度有所下降

Economic Indicators - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December 2025, indicating a contraction[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from December 2025[1] Contributing Factors - Seasonal factors contributed to the decline, as January is typically a slow month for manufacturing, with an average drop of 0.3 percentage points over the past decade[2] - The base effect from a significant increase in December 2025's PMI (up 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%) also pressured January's figures[2] - Weak domestic investment and consumption demand, alongside high external uncertainties, particularly in the real estate market, negatively impacted manufacturing[2] Specific Index Movements - The new orders index for manufacturing fell 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, the primary driver of the PMI decline[2] - The manufacturing new export orders index decreased by 1.2 percentage points, indicating potential export slowdown due to external uncertainties[2] - The production index in manufacturing dropped 1 percentage point to 50.6%, but remained in the expansion zone, supported by global AI investment trends[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining in expansion territory due to strong exports and domestic equipment upgrades[5] - Consumer goods and basic materials PMIs fell to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, primarily due to slowing market demand[5] - The construction PMI dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is expected to decline further in February due to the upcoming Spring Festival and increased holiday downtime[6] - Future manufacturing sentiment will largely depend on export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies[6] - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies expected to strengthen consumption and investment[6]