宁证期货今日早评-20260202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current biggest risk in the crude oil market is the geopolitical situation around Iran. In the long - term, the key factors affecting crude oil prices are the pressure of oversupply and market expectations. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The PVC market is expected to face price pressure and fluctuate in the short - term due to high supply, weak domestic demand, and rapid inventory accumulation [2]. - The short - term downward space for pig prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of fertile sows [4]. - The domestic soybean meal market is supported by terminal feed enterprise inventory needs, but due to high oil mill operating rates and future supply pressure, the rebound amplitude is limited, and caution is advised [5]. - The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival as the coal mine output will decline during the holiday and the fundamentals remain healthy [5]. - The iron ore fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the price will fluctuate as steel enterprises increase inventory replenishment and there are weather disturbances in the shipping end [6]. - For palm oil, it is recommended that previous long - positions take profits, wait and see, and avoid chasing high prices due to high futures prices, weak spot price increases, and future supply pressure [6]. - The rebar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand weakens seasonally, inventory accumulation accelerates, but there is cost support [8]. - The asphalt market is expected to accumulate inventory in February. It has strengthened significantly under geopolitical and cost drivers, but there is a risk of a sharp fall, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions [8]. - For synthetic rubber, it is recommended to take short positions at a relatively high level in the short - term as the supply remains high, but production is in a loss state and inventory changes are limited [9]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term as the port inventory increase is expected to slow down and the spot market performs well despite high domestic production and weak downstream demand [10]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to high supply, average demand, and increasing manufacturer inventory [11]. - The copper market is mainly affected by market sentiment in the short - term, with high volatility as the supply is tight and high prices suppress downstream consumption [12]. - The aluminum price may fluctuate greatly recently as the market is affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. - The bond market is bullish as the January PMI decline indicates increased economic downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [13]. - The silver price may follow the gold price in the short - term and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and the interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]. - The gold price may enter a short - term downward trend but still oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Energy - Crude Oil: As of January 30, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 411, unchanged from the previous week and 68 less than the same period last year. "OPEC +" will maintain the suspension of production increase in March. The biggest risk is the Iranian situation, and long - term price factors are supply - demand and expectations. Short - term wait - and - see [1]. - PVC: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.93%, up 0.19%. Social inventory is 120.64 million tons, up 2.45%. High supply, weak demand, and rapid inventory accumulation lead to expected price pressure [2]. - Asphalt: In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is planned to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. Supply and demand both decline, and inventory accumulation is expected. There is a risk of a sharp fall [8]. Agriculture - Pig: As of January 30, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.57 kg, up 0.06 kg. The weekly slaughter rate is 36.98%, down 0.19%. The price is stable and slightly stronger, and short - term downward space is limited [4]. - Soybean Meal: As of last Friday, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. Terminal inventory needs support the price, but there is future supply pressure, and the rebound is limited [5]. Metals - Iron Ore: The inventory of 45 ports is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.5573 million tons. The daily port clearance volume is 3.3231 million tons, up 215,800 tons. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the price will fluctuate [6]. - Copper: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman may affect long - term liquidity expectations. The supply is tight, and high prices suppress demand. Short - term volatility is high [12]. - Aluminum: The strike in Guinea, a major bauxite supplier, causes supply concerns. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the price may fluctuate greatly [12]. - Silver: The nomination of the Fed Chairman affects the dollar index and pressures precious metals. It may follow gold in the short - term and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [13]. - Gold: Geopolitical disturbances support the price, but the Fed's future policy causes tightening expectations. It may enter a short - term downward trend and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [14]. Others - Coking Coal: The average national profit per ton of coke is - 55 yuan/ton. The coal mine output will decline during the holiday, and the price will fluctuate before the Spring Festival [5]. - Synthetic Rubber: As of January 30, the butadiene capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, up 1.81%. The supply is high, but production is in a loss state, and short - term short positions are recommended [9]. - Methanol: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2270 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The port inventory is increasing, but the expected increase slows down. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term [10]. - Soda Ash: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1234 yuan/ton. The production is high, demand is average, and inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - Long - term Treasury Bond: The January PMI decline indicates economic downward pressure, which is bullish for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [13].