纯碱周报：多空交织，但“供强需弱”核心未变-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the soda ash market remains unchanged. The market lacks a strong upward driving force, and the support from pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand is limited. Prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, with the upside limited by fundamental pressures [8][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of January 29, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, light soda ash production was 362,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 421,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,200 tons [6][9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week was 84.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 percentage points; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.34 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 percentage points [6][11] 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of January 29, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 828,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,200 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory decreased by 30,090 tons or 16.31% [7][14] 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of January 29, the weekly soda ash shipment volume of Chinese enterprises was 760,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.94%. The overall soda ash shipment rate was 97.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.92 percentage points [16] 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of January 29, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method of soda ash in China was - 26.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 33.75%. The price of raw material rock salt was stable, the price of steam coal decreased steadily, the cost side fluctuated downward, the market price of soda ash was stable, and the price of by - product ammonium chloride increased slightly, so the double - ton profit of the co - production method increased slightly [20] - As of January 29, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process of soda ash in China was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. The price of raw material sea salt increased slightly, while the price of anthracite coal fluctuated downward, the cost side showed a weakening trend, the soda ash market was weakly stable without obvious fluctuations, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process slightly improved but remained at a low level [23] 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Float Glass Industry - As of January 29, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 151,000 tons, the same as on the 22nd. The weekly (20260123 - 0129) national float glass production was 1,057,000 tons, the same as the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 3.375% [26] - As of January 29, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52,564,000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22%, a year - on - year increase of 21.24%. The inventory days were 22.8 days, a decrease of 0.3 days compared with the previous period [29] 3.3 Market Price Analysis - The price of动力煤 (5500 kcal) decreased by 0.57% week - on - week to 692 yuan/ton; the price of原盐 - 井矿盐 in East China remained unchanged at 260 yuan/ton. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions remained unchanged, with only the price of light soda ash in the Northwest decreasing by 1.12% to 880 yuan/ton. The price of float glass increased by 0.91% to 1,107 yuan/ton, the price of 2.0 photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 10.5 yuan/square meter, the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 2.47% to 790 yuan/ton, the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan decreased by 2.33% to 420 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 1.53% to 2,195 yuan/ton [32] 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The soda ash market fundamentals showed a complex game last week, and the disk fluctuations were more driven by emotions. The supply pressure was still significant, the demand was weak, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the industry was generally in a loss state. Although the theoretical profit improved, the "strong supply and weak demand" core contradiction remained unchanged [33] - Operation suggestions: for unilateral trading, go short on rallies as the supply - demand imbalance and high inventory situation remain unchanged, and use rebounds as opportunities to lay out short positions, but note the support of industry losses on the price bottom; for arbitrage, there is no suggestion; for options, consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to collect option premiums in a volatile market [34]