供需博弈叠加政策稳供，玉米市场延续区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - After the corn futures and spot prices broke through the 2300 yuan/ton mark last week, the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. As the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grains has loosened, and the supply of market - circulating grain sources has increased steadily. Feed and deep - processing enterprises have completed their pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and the marginal demand for pre - holiday stockpiling has weakened. The continuous release of corn auctions on the policy side has alleviated the pre - holiday stockpiling pressure of grain - using enterprises and restricted the upward rhythm of grain prices. Overall, the market lacks a clear one - way driver, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [8][65] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - Futures Price: Last week, the domestic corn futures market showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract C2603 rose at the beginning of the week and then declined under pressure. As of last Friday's close, it closed at 2271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09%. The CBOT corn futures market was volatile, closing at 428.25 cents per bushel as of last week's close, a decrease of 0.58% [5][14][19] - Spot Price: Last week, the national average weekly price of corn was 2332 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. The corn prices in the Northeast region fluctuated slightly with a slight upward shift in the price center. The prices in the North China region were generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas and ports first rose and then fell [7][25] - Basis: As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - main contract was 69 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [28] 3.2. Review of Relevant Information Last Week - US Corn Sales: As of the week ending January 15, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2025/26 season was 4010000 tons, compared with 1140000 tons a week ago [29] - Argentine Corn Situation: As of January 21, the planted area of Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season accounted for 93.1% of the total expected area, higher than 91.7% a week ago but 5.3 percentage points behind the same period last year. The heatwave may reduce corn production, and early - sown corn is most affected. As of January 21, 2026, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 12540000 tons of 2025/26 season corn, 490000 tons more than a week ago [29][30] - Brazilian Corn Situation: The predicted total output of Brazilian corn in the 2025/26 season is 136600000 tons, an increase of 600000 tons compared with the December prediction. As of January 22, the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 5%, higher than 1.6% the previous week but lower than 8.6% a year ago. The planting progress of the second - crop corn in 2026 in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 4.7% of the expected area. The export volume of Brazilian corn from January 1 - 23 was 3745000 tons. The ANEC predicted that the export volume of Brazilian corn in January would reach 3390000 tons, a 6.4% increase compared with the same period last year [30][31][32] 3.3. Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of January 29, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.93 days, an increase of 0.61 days compared with the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 1.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.21% [36] - Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory: As of January 28, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 4405000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.14% [41] - Deep - processing Enterprise Consumption: From January 22 to January 28, 2026, the main corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed a total of 1385400 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 3900 tons [45] - Deep - processing Enterprise Startup: From January 22 to January 28, the processing volume, starch output, and startup rate of corn starch enterprises all decreased week - on - week. The total processing volume of the main corn starch processing enterprises in the country was 631400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4200 tons; the corn starch output was 328200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2600 tons; the startup rate was 59.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% [50] - Deep - processing Enterprise Profit: Northeast corn starch enterprises are still in the loss range, and North China corn starch enterprises are generally near the break - even line. The hedging by - product profit of Jilin corn starch is - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the hedging by - product profit of Shandong corn starch is 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the hedging by - product profit of Heilongjiang corn starch is - 129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [54] - Import and Export: In December 2025, China imported about 800000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 44.2% and a year - on - year increase of 133.12%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of corn was 2647700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.76%, far lower than the 7200000 - ton import quota [57] 3.4. Related Product Situation - Corn Starch: Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2707 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction prices in different regions showed different trends [60] - Pigs: Last week, the pig price continued to decline, with both futures and spot prices decreasing week - on - week. As of January 30, the national average slaughter price of live pigs was 12.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.66 yuan/kg compared with the previous week, a decline of 5.13%; the average slaughter price of fattened pigs was 13.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg compared with the previous week, a decline of 3.21% [64] 3.5. Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - Market Outlook: The market will continue to fluctuate within a range due to the increase in grain supply, the weakening of pre - holiday stockpiling demand, and the influence of policy - side auctions [8][65] - Operation Strategy: Adopt a range - fluctuation mindset for unilateral operations; there are no suggestions for arbitrage and options [9][66]