2月钢价或将震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the steel price is expected to fluctuate. The price of the rebar 2605 contract rose by 0.03% in February. The global and Chinese crude steel production decreased in 2025. The rebar inventory accumulated in line with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal pattern but was still at a low level year - on - year. The demand side remained weak, and the rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [5][1][33] - Operational strategies: For single - side trading, take a bullish stance on dips; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures price: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented [7] - Spot price: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12] - Basis and spread: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific data analysis is provided [13] Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work conference, aiming to continue building a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and strengthen the central bank's macro - prudential management function [16] - In 2025, national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 73982.0 billion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. The steel industry's profit was 1098.3 billion yuan, up 299.2% year - on - year, while the coal mining and washing industry's profit was 3520.0 billion yuan, down 41.8% year - on - year [16] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and market demand was insufficient [16] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year; the real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan; and the personal housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan [16] Supply - side and Demand - side Situations - Supply - side: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills are mentioned, but no detailed data is provided [18][20] - Demand - side: In January 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, down 4% month - on - month; the purchasing manager index for the steel circulation industry was 47.1, down 0.9% month - on - month [24] Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [32] - In 2025, China's crude steel production was about 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%, dropping below 1 billion tons for the first time since reaching its peak in 2020 [32] Market Outlook - At the end of January, the weekly social inventory of rebar was 3.264 million tons, up 7.7% month - on - month and down 27.5% year - on - year. The inventory accumulation conformed to the pre - Spring Festival seasonal rule, but the demand side remained weak. The rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [33] Operational Strategies - Single - side trading: Take a bullish stance on dips - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34]