铁矿周报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract dropped by 0.06%. Although the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose with high port inventories, supported by the raw material replenishment demand of steel mills, iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk spillover effect of the sharp decline in precious metals on the commodity market [4][29] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Futures Price: Not detailed in the report [6] - Spot Price: The spot price of PB powder (61.5%) at Tianjin Port is mentioned, but no specific price is given [6] - Position Analysis: Futures seat net position analysis is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [7] 2. Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 Macro - Prudential Work Conference, requiring the 2026 macro - prudential work to continue to strengthen the central bank's macro - prudential management function [12] - In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China reached 739.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline. The steel industry's total profit was 109.83 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 299.2%; the coal mining and washing industry's total profit was 352 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.8% [12] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [12] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year; the balance of real estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the whole year; the balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the whole year [12] - Two iron ore units of Brazilian mining giant Vale in Minas Gerais state were ordered to suspend operations and had their relevant licenses revoked due to continuous water overflow incidents [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month [17] - As of December 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 71.393 million tons, an increase of 9.544 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 27.635 million tons, a decrease of 3.328 million tons from the first half of the month [20] 4. Demand - side Situation - The profitability rate, daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [22][23][25] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the daily hot metal output was 2.2798 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 million tons [28] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 170.2226 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5573 million tons; the daily port clearance volume was 3.3231 million tons, an increase of 0.2158 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 106, a decrease of 12. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 177.5826 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6173 million tons; the daily port clearance volume was 3.4771 million tons, an increase of 0.2719 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 109, a decrease of 13 [28] 6. Market Outlook - Although the fundamentals are relatively loose and port inventories are high, supported by the raw material replenishment demand of steel mills, iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk spillover effect of the sharp decline in precious metals on the commodity market [29] 7. Operation Strategies - Single - side: Go long on iron ore on dips in the medium term [5][30] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5][30] - Options: Wait and see [5][30]