国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; silicon iron and manganese silicon will have wide - range oscillations due to commodity sentiment resonance; coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate at a high level; coking coal will experience high - level oscillations due to event - related fermentation; thermal coal is in a weak supply - demand balance, and coal prices will have narrow - range fluctuations before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar futures RB2605, the closing price was 3,128 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, and the position decreased by 51,270 lots. For hot - rolled coil futures HC2605, the closing price was 3,288 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, and the position decreased by 17,466 lots. In terms of spot prices, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase and decrease. The basis of RB2605 increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 29, steel production increased, inventory of rebar increased while that of hot - rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased. In December, the production of medium - thick plate mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - and cold - rolling mills decreased. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key iron and steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel products increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities showed different changes. BHP Billiton's iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [4][6][7]. - Trend Intensity: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Data: For silicon iron 2603, the closing price was 5660 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2605, the closing price was 5646 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 58 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2603, the closing price was 5842 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2605, the closing price was 5872 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5330 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese silicon FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton [9]. - Macro and Industry News: Two departments planned to increase the proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity - based electricity prices. The prices and production of silicon iron, manganese silicon, and manganese ore in different regions and enterprises changed. The average monthly operating rate and output of silicon iron in January decreased. Some steel mills issued招标 announcements and determined procurement prices for silicon iron and manganese silicon. As of January 30, the manganese ore inventory increased [9][10][11][12]. - Trend Intensity: Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: For coking coal futures JM2605, the closing price was 1155.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.8%. For coke futures J2605, the closing price was 1721.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.1%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spread also changed [16]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resource Network was released. The online auction of coking coal had a lower non - successful bid rate and an average premium of 31.25 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high [16]. - Trend Intensity: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Thermal Coal - Fundamental Data: The prices of thermal coal in different producing areas, ports, and overseas regions, as well as the February long - term agreement prices, showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [20]. - Macro and Industry News: In January, the demand for thermal coal was in the peak season, and the price fluctuated. The provincial energy work conferences in various places set the direction for 2026 energy work. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said that the government's production quota cuts might lead to mine closures [21].