Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs observation, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - For precious metals, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude due to multiple factors [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term pressures, some metals may stabilize in the future [16][19]. - For black building materials, the market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations [34]. - For energy chemicals, different strategies such as taking profit on rallies, short - selling, etc. are proposed for different products [61][65]. - For agricultural products, different strategies are given according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as short - selling on rebounds, waiting for callbacks to buy, etc. [84][92] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - Market Information: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, China's January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from the previous month, and precious metals tumbled [2]. - Strategy: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - run as policies support the capital market, but pay attention to short - term market rhythms [4]. Treasury Bond - Market Information: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had different price changes on Friday. The government emphasized the economic work in 2026, and the 2025 national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% compared to 2024 [5]. - Strategy: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [8]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices plunged due to Warsh's nomination and other factors. The short - term dollar is expected to remain strong, and emerging markets may face capital outflows and currency depreciation [9]. - Strategy: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Affected by geopolitical and Fed news, the copper price fell on Friday. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [15]. - Strategy: Although there are short - term pressure factors, the copper price is expected to stabilize gradually. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 102000 - 106000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12600 - 13500 dollars/ton [16]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price fell on Friday. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [17]. - Strategy: If the precious - metal volatility decreases and domestic inventory performs better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3080 - 3180 dollars/ton [19]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - Zinc: The zinc price followed the sector. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [20]. - Lead: The lead industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [21]. - Nickel: The nickel price has a large short - term decline risk. It is recommended to sell on rallies. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 12.0 - 15.0 million yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 1.6 - 1.8 million dollars/ton [22]. - Tin: The tin price may have a large short - term correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47000 - 51000 dollars/ton [24]. - Carbonate Lithium: The lithium price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium main contract is 136000 - 158000 yuan/ton [26]. - Alumina: The alumina price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 2950 yuan/ton [28]. - Stainless Steel: Maintain a bullish view. It is recommended to lightly build long positions around 14000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14700 yuan/ton [30]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The short - term price is supported by supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased on Friday. The inventory of rebar is accumulating, while that of hot - rolled coil is slightly decreasing [34]. - Strategy: The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory changes, plate - demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [34]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron - ore main contract price fell on Friday. The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel - mill inventory is increasing [35]. - Strategy: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to steel - mill restocking and iron - water production rhythms [36]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated on January 30th. The coking - coal price is in a rebound cycle, and the coke price is approaching a long - term downward trend line [37]. - Strategy: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to market - sentiment fluctuations [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass price increased on Friday, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [42][43]. - Soda Ash: The soda - ash price increased on Friday, and the inventory increased. The market is expected to have a weak and stable fluctuation in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased on January 30th. The prices of both are in an oscillatory state [47]. - Strategy: The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Pay attention to manganese - ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industrial - silicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of the large - factory production - reduction plan [51][52]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Pay attention to terminal - demand feedback and policy adjustments [53][54]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The rubber market has large price fluctuations. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - enterprise开工率 has different changes, and the inventory is increasing [56][57]. - Strategy: Trade according to the short - term disk, set stop - losses, and consider building positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract [58]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The crude - oil main contract price increased, and the inventories of some refined oils changed. The gasoline inventory increased, while the diesel and fuel - oil inventories decreased [59]. - Strategy: Take profit on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [61]. Other Energy Chemicals - Methanol: The current price has priced in most of the geopolitical premium, and the upside space is under pressure [63]. - Urea: The import window is opened, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [65]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The pure - benzene price increased, and the styrene price decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is recommended to gradually take profit [66][68]. - PVC: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to changes in production capacity and开工率 [69][70]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene - glycol market has a high load and high inventory. The supply - demand situation needs to be improved through production reduction [71][72]. - PTA: The PTA market is in the Spring - Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Pay attention to the risk of processing - fee correction and mid - term long - position opportunities [73][74]. - Para - Xylene: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and pay attention to long - position opportunities following the crude - oil price [75][76]. - Polyethylene PE: The PE futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [77][79]. - Polypropylene PP: The PP futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [80][81]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The pig price mainly increased over the weekend. The supply is large in the short - term, and the demand is relatively stable [83]. - Strategy: Short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support level [84]. Eggs - Market Information: The egg price generally decreased over the weekend. The supply is normal, and the demand is weak [85]. - Strategy: The near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month contract may continue to correct its valuation. It is recommended to short - sell [86]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The protein - meal futures price fell on Friday. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories decreased. The overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season [87][89]. - Strategy: The protein - meal price may be bottoming out [89]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The oil - and - fat futures price fell on Friday. The Malaysian palm - oil production decreased in January, and the domestic three - major oil inventories decreased [91][92]. - Strategy: Wait for a callback and then try to go long [92]. Sugar - Market Information: The sugar futures price fluctuated on Friday. The Brazilian and Indian sugar productions had different changes, and China's sugar imports increased [93]. - Strategy: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern - hemisphere harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [94]. Cotton - Market Information: The cotton futures price fell on Friday. The spinning - mill开机率 decreased, and the global cotton production and consumption have different changes [96][97]. - Strategy: The cotton price has room to rise in the long - term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [98].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026/02/02星期一-20260202
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-02 01:42