五矿期货黑色建材日报-20260202

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of multiple US federal government departments may suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.7341 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 51270 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3288 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.60%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 190323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2655 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5297 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 17466 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. Domestically, the policy tone was relatively stable. Overseas, the market's dovish expectations declined, and commodity prices cooled down. The rebar output remained high, the apparent demand declined seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, and the inventory started to accumulate but the overall amplitude was controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, the output was moderately high, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [2] Iron Ore a. Market Information - Last Friday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.88% (- 7.00). The position changed by - 14164 lots to 541200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 894300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.17% [3] b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The shipment volume from Australia increased month - on - month, and that from Brazil remained stable. The shipments of three major Australian mines increased, while that of Vale decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries declined from a high level. The recent arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 227.98 tons, a month - on - month slight decline. Some blast furnaces in certain regions were undergoing annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly due to the end of maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which put pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise, and steel mills continued to replenish their stocks before the festival. In general, the overseas supply was entering the off - season, the supply pressure was gradually alleviating, the structural inventory problem was not resolved, and the pre - festival procurement by steel mills after price decline provided some support. The short - term iron ore price was expected to fluctuate mainly [4] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.91% at 5872 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5780 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5970 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.32% at 5660 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - Last week, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to fluctuate. The weekly weighted index of manganese silicon increased by 22 yuan/ton or + 0.38%, and that of ferrosilicon increased by 10 yuan/ton or + 0.18%. Technically, there was no obvious trend for both [7] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The recent sharp fluctuations in the commodity market were triggered by the appointment of the new Fed chairman, which led to expectations of a marginal tightening of the denominator. The previous strong - performing lithium carbonate also declined significantly, suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. However, the black sector was supported by the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate industry and the successful extension of Vanke's debt. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of US federal government departments might suppress the market atmosphere. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern was not ideal, but most of these factors were already reflected in the price. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure was basically balanced and was gradually improving. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon would be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors for manganese silicon and supply - contraction factors for ferrosilicon [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.82% at 1155.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1584.8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1395 yuan/ton, with a premium of 239.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 128.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 53.5 yuan/ton over the futures [11] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.09% at 1721.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 11 yuan/ton to the futures [11][12] - Last week, the coking coal price continued to fluctuate widely, with a weekly increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or + 0.04%. The coke price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 0.03% [12] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Similar to the overall market situation, the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market affected coking coal and coke. The black sector had short - term emotional support. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue, but in the short - term, market sentiment was suppressed. In terms of supply - demand, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke was gradually becoming looser. Although the downstream was still replenishing stocks, the inventory of coking coal in coking plants was approaching the level of the same period last year, and the willingness of downstream steel mills to replenish stocks was significantly weak. The short - term stock - replenishment was not expected to drive up prices strongly. However, the firm Australian coal prices and the US power shortage might have a positive impact on sentiment. In the context of global resource management, the "scarcity" premium of coking coal might be enhanced, providing some support for valuation. Overall, the short - term prices of coking coal and coke were expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: Last Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8850 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.84% (- 75). The weighted contract position changed by - 13784 lots to 353139 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 350 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis for the main contract was 0 yuan/ton after conversion [16] - Polysilicon: Last Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 47140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.45% (- 2195). The weighted contract position changed by - 710 lots to 76114 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.3 yuan/kg, down 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: It showed a pattern of rising in the afternoon and then falling last Friday. In terms of supply, Sichuan's production enterprises maintained the furnace - shutdown state, and enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reduced production, with the weekly output continuing to decline. In terms of demand, a leading polysilicon enterprise shut down completely, and some other enterprises reduced production. The demand for industrial silicon was generally weak. In February, the production - reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang entered the implementation period. If the plan was implemented as rumored, the supply - demand balance sheet in February was expected to improve, and the sustainability depended on the shutdown duration. Overall, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the short - term, and the supply contraction provided strong support for the price. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the weakening downstream, the price was expected to fluctuate mainly [17][18] - Polysilicon: In the spot market, the price negotiation was intense, and the market information was chaotic. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was low, and some enterprises tried to lower the prices. The actual transaction prices declined. The silicon wafer segment was also under pressure, and the price of silicon materials weakened, which reduced the cost support. The terminal component prices continued to rise, and the battery segment's price continued to rise due to non - silicon costs and overseas demand. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve in the first quarter as a leading enterprise shut down and some other enterprises reduced production. Policy expectations were expected to provide support for prices. The futures position and liquidity of polysilicon had fallen to a relatively low level since listing, and the futures price was expected to be under pressure due to the weakening spot prices. Attention should be paid to the feedback of terminal demand and possible new policy adjustments [20] Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 1.87% (+ 20) from the previous day. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 651,800 cases (- 1.22%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 8027 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 69570 lots [22] - Soda ash: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1224 yuan/ton, up 2.17% (+ 26) from the previous day. The price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe was 1184 yuan, up 26 yuan from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons (+ 1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 3600 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 11413 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 8239 lots [24] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: As the Spring Festival approached, the downstream processing plants were approaching the end of work, the market demand was weakening, the trading activity was decreasing, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory - building was almost completed. In terms of supply, a production line was restarted and ignited recently, and there was no cold - repair plan, so the overall production capacity remained stable. The demand was limited due to the Spring Festival seasonality. Overall, the market lacked strong driving factors, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and manufacturers were not willing to adjust prices. Most of them aimed to maintain stable prices, promote sales, and reduce inventory. The float - glass market was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [23] - Soda ash: The supply in the industry remained loose. The short - stopped devices such as Jiangsu Huachang had resumed operation, and the new production capacity was gradually being released, with the supply continuing to show an increasing trend. The demand side remained weak, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Only a few enterprises made appropriate inventory - building before the festival, and the overall wait - and - see sentiment was strong, with limited order growth. Overall, the current supply - demand structure of the soda - ash market was relatively loose, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the price lacked upward - driving force. The market was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [25]