五矿期货有色金属日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metals suppresses the atmosphere of non - ferrous metals, and short - term panic still has a suppressing effect. However, in the long run, the outlook is not pessimistic. Copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize, aluminum prices may stabilize under certain conditions, and different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5][6]. - The market may return to real - world trading. Tin prices may face a significant correction risk in the short term, nickel prices have a large risk of decline, and lithium prices face pressure but may have short - term support at the bottom [15][17][19]. - The stainless steel price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position layout can be considered at around 14,000 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: On Friday, LME copper 3M closed down 4.63% to $13,070/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 to 174,975 tons, and the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly inventory increased by 0.7 to 233,000 tons [2]. - Strategic Viewpoint: The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops. The expected surplus is alleviated, and copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - $13,500/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 3.03% to $3,135/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,600 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 63,000 to 742,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 to 145,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly [4]. - Strategic Viewpoint: Domestic inventories are accumulating, but it does not constitute a major negative for prices. LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and domestic inventories perform better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,180/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy dropped sharply. The main AD2603 contract closed down 4.32% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, and the trading volume was 45,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,200 tons [8]. - Strategic Viewpoint: Although the demand is relatively average, in the context of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the price has short - term support [8]. Lead - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $42 to $2,004/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons [10]. - Strategic Viewpoint: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC is at a low level, the primary lead production rate remains relatively high, and the primary lead ingot inventory is accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste has increased, the recycled smelting profit has slightly declined, but the recycled lead production rate has increased marginally. The downstream battery enterprise production rate has slightly declined. The industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [11][12]. Zinc - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.46% to 25,860 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $62.5 to $3,399/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 25,790 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,800 tons [13]. - Strategic Viewpoint: In the industrial sector, the zinc ore raw material inventory has increased, the decline rate of zinc ore has slowed down. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME zinc 3 - 15 month spread has increased. The overseas natural gas price has increased, causing concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [13]. Tin - Market Information: On January 30, the tin price冲高回落, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 409,000 yuan/ton, down 8.32% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 30 to 8,524 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 7,095 tons [14]. - Strategic Viewpoint: In the context of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price may have a large correction risk in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - $51,000/ton [15]. Nickel - Market Information: On January 30, the nickel price dropped significantly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5.07% from the previous day. The spot market premiums remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [16]. - Strategic Viewpoint: The nickel price has a large risk of decline in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the significant increase in domestic nickel inventory put pressure on the nickel price. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: Last Friday, the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,107 yuan, down 5.71% from the previous working day and 11.28% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan, down 10.08% from the previous day's closing price and 18.36% for the week [18][19]. - Strategic Viewpoint: Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the stop - profit orders increased significantly, causing the lithium price to decline rapidly. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% for the week. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the sustainability of supply - side contraction is uncertain, and there is significant pressure on the upside of the lithium price. In the context of low downstream inventories, there may be short - term support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 136,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On January 30, 2026, the alumina index fell 1.64% to 2,768 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position decreased by 32,900 to 613,500 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 213 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 79 yuan/ton. The Friday futures warehouse receipts were 171,100 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous day [21]. - Strategic Viewpoint: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Friday at 15:00, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton, up 0.83% (+120). The unilateral position was 293,500 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons. The social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons, a 2.91% increase month - on - month, and the 300 - series inventory was 616,700 tons, a 2.86% increase month - on - month [24]. - Strategic Viewpoint: Last week, the market volatility increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market sentiment was affected. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover speed slowed down. The supply side has significantly contracted. The core upward logic has not changed, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions at around 14,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,700 yuan/ton [25].