棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 14,670 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.61% and a night - session close of 14,770 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.68%. CY2603 closed at 20,495 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.99% and a night - session close of 20,515 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.11 cents/pound with a 0.55% decline. The trading volume of CF2605 was 698,165 lots, an increase of 230,350 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,010,747 lots, a decrease of 75,779 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 12,530 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 5,889 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 10,289, an increase of 46, and the valid forecast was 1,084, an increase of 12. The number of棉纱 warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the valid forecast was 7, a decrease of 7 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,694 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan or 1.51% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan or 1.52%. The price in Shandong was 16,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan or 0.49%, and in Hebei was 16,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 83 yuan or 0.51%. The 3128B index was 16,183 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.50%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 0.00 cents/pound, a 100.00% decrease from the previous day. The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,430 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,027 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan or 0.03% [1] - Spread Data: The CF3 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 remained unchanged at 1,020 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The basis of domestic cotton spot was generally stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF05 + 1150 and above, with a small amount lower, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The quotation of pure cotton yarn was generally stable, with no significant price fluctuations in mainstream specifications. The market trading was light. The shipment of medium - and low - count yarns slowed down recently, while high - count yarns and traceable orders were relatively strong. Some large factories had slightly accumulated inventory, with partial low quotations, and traders actively purchased [2] - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell slightly, affected by the rising US dollar and the decline of other commodities [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 1, indicating a neutral trend [4]