股指：申万期货品种策略日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Since 2026, the continuous improvement of the stock market is the result of the combined action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by profitability. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. Under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4710.00, 4711.00, 4699.80, and 4655.00 respectively, with price drops of - 56.60, - 63.00, - 61.60, and - 60.60 and percentage drops of - 1.19%, - 1.32%, - 1.29%, and - 1.29%. The trading volumes were 30941.00, 108273.00, 29303.00, and 10684.00 respectively, and the open interests were 40190.00, 186373.00, 79325.00, and 26756.00 respectively, with increases of 712.00, 1489.00, 3407.00, and 3479.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3068.20, 3074.00, 3080.00, and 3053.20 respectively, with price drops of - 51.40, - 51.20, - 48.40, and - 51.40 and percentage drops of - 1.65%, - 1.64%, - 1.55%, and - 1.66%. The trading volumes were 14721.00, 48327.00, 9614.00, and 4387.00 respectively, and the open interests were 16154.00, 70443.00, 26626.00, and 9143.00 respectively, with decreases of - 2163.00, - 3226.00, - 393.00, and - 81.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8377.20, 8362.40, 8300.00, and 8210.00 respectively, with price drops of - 166.40, - 176.60, - 191.20, and - 191.40 and percentage drops of - 1.95%, - 2.07%, - 2.25%, and - 2.28%. The trading volumes were 36443.00, 137793.00, 56729.00, and 17220.00 respectively, and the open interests were 46994.00, 163697.00, 100847.00, and 37921.00 respectively, with changes of 625.00, - 7265.00, - 13.00, and 2280.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8282.40, 8260.60, 8143.80, and 7996.60 respectively, with price drops of - 70.80, - 69.60, - 60.40, and - 55.80 and percentage drops of - 0.85%, - 0.84%, - 0.74%, and - 0.69%. The trading volumes were 41174.00, 167342.00, 47656.00, and 19670.00 respectively, and the open interests were 58272.00, 191798.00, 111274.00, and 47496.00 respectively, with changes of - 614.00, - 4571.00, - 482.00, and 2912.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were 1.00, 5.80, - 14.80, and - 21.80 respectively, with previous values of 9.40, 6.20, - 13.60, and - 22.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Points and Trading Data: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4706.34, 3066.50, 8370.52, and 8254.86 respectively, with percentage drops of - 1.00%, - 1.43%, - 1.73%, and - 0.93%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 319.79, 79.01, 328.95, and 364.92 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7505.65, 2222.33, 6004.97, and 5967.49 respectively [1] - Industry Indexes: Among different industries, the energy industry had a 0.39% increase, the raw materials industry had a - 6.32% decrease, the industrial industry had a - 0.26% decrease, the optional consumption industry had a - 1.04% decrease, the major consumption industry had a - 2.75% decrease, the medical and health industry had a - 1.42% decrease, the real estate and finance industry had a - 0.98% decrease, the information technology industry had a 0.19% increase, the telecommunications business industry had a 3.90% increase, and the public utilities industry had a 0.44% increase [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis for IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were 3.66, 4.66, - 6.54, and - 51.34 respectively, with previous two - day values of 20.73, 30.13, 17.73, and - 26.87 [1] - The previous values of the basis for IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were 1.70, 7.50, 13.50, and - 13.30 respectively, with previous two - day values of 13.29, 19.49, 21.69, and - 2.31 [1] - The previous values of the basis for IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were 6.68, - 8.12, - 70.52, and - 160.52 respectively, with previous two - day values of 13.36, - 0.24, - 54.84, and - 143.84 [1] - The previous values of the basis for IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were 27.54, 5.74, - 111.06, and - 258.26 respectively, with previous two - day values of 19.19, - 3.21, - 132.61, and - 284.21 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the SSE Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4117.95, 14205.89, 8547.18, and 3346.36 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96%, - 0.66%, - 1.34%, and 1.27% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 27387.11, 53322.85, 6939.03, and 24538.81 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.08%, - 0.10%, - 0.43%, and 0.94% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The State Taxation Administration adjusted the criteria for determining the VAT threshold for natural persons. The threshold for each (daily) sale increased from 500 yuan to 1000 yuan, and 6 specific situations will directly apply the monthly sales threshold of 100,000 yuan [2] - This week, there are many important events in the global market. Domestically, the first annual report of 2025 in the Shanghai Stock Exchange will be released, multiple industrial conferences will be held, and China's foreign exchange and gold reserve data for January will be announced. Internationally, PMI data for January in many European and American countries, the US non - farm payrolls report will be released, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce interest rate decisions, the Japanese House of Representatives election will be held, and technology giants such as Google and Amazon will release their latest financial reports. Additionally, the CME will raise the trading margins for gold and silver futures, and the SHFE will follow suit. The "AI war" is intensifying [2] - US President Trump stated that the relationship between the US and Venezuela is good, and the two sides will "share" oil revenues. Regarding Cuba, he said that Cuba may seek negotiations with the US. Negotiations on Greenland have started and are basically agreed upon. He also mentioned that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US and hopes to reach an acceptable agreement [2] - OPEC+ members agreed to maintain the policy of suspending production increases, keeping oil production unchanged in March. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stated that eight OPEC+ members reaffirmed their commitment to market stability, with a sound global economic outlook, healthy current oil market fundamentals, and low inventory levels [2] - The Fourth Session of the 14th Shanghai Municipal Political Consultative Conference will open on February 2nd. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" era, "high - end industry leadership", "low - altitude scenario commercialization", and "new AI business models" are hot topics among Shanghai CPPCC members [2] 3.6 Industry Information - In 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the sales revenues of the household appliance retail industry (such as refrigerators), kitchenware and sanitary ware retail industry (such as gas stoves), and communication equipment retail industry (such as mobile phones) increased by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year - on - year respectively. In rural areas, the order volume of household appliances increased by 64% year - on - year, and the number of users increased by 38% [2] - In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry had a new order volume of 107.82 million deadweight tons, accounting for 69% of the global market, and the order backlog at the end of December was 274.42 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5% and accounting for 66.8% of the global market, reaching a new historical high [2] - In January, most domestic car companies reported year - on - year sales growth. Leapmotor delivered 32,059 vehicles, a 27% increase; Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles; NIO delivered 27,182 new vehicles, a 96.1% increase; Great Wall Motors sold 90,300 vehicles, an 11.59% increase; Seres' new energy vehicle sales reached 43,034, a 140.33% increase; GAC Group sold 116,600 vehicles, an 18.47% increase; Li Auto delivered 27,668 new vehicles, a decline of over 7% [2] - In January, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities was 12,905 yuan per square meter, a 0.85% month - on - month decrease and an 8.67% year - on - year decrease. In the new home market, high - end improved properties were launched in cities such as Chengdu, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, driving a structural month - on - month increase in the average price of new homes in 100 cities [2]