豆粕周报：多空因素交织，连粕整体震荡-20260202

Report Title - Bean Meal Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 2, 2026 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract fell 3.25 to close at 1064.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.30%; the May bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2767 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.58%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 3120 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.65%; the May rapeseed meal contract rose 52 to close at 2287 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.33%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.23% [4][7] - The domestic Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) bean meal main contract fluctuated within the week, with its upside limited under the pattern of ample supply. Bullish sentiment on the potential drought in the Argentine production area increased, combined with strong bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market in the first half of the week and pre - Chinese New Year stocking demand, leading to active downstream pick - ups and an increase in feed enterprises' bean meal inventories, which pushed up the futures price. However, as market sentiment cooled, with the progress of the Brazilian harvest, increased supply, slower US soybean export sales, and news of a possible restart of imported soybean auctions, the DCE bean meal contract fell sharply and ended slightly higher. The rapeseed meal rebounded more strongly than bean meal due to the unclear China - Canada trade relationship [4][7] - The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing steadily, and the increase in precipitation in the Argentine production area has alleviated drought concerns. The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has not been disproven. US soybean export sales have slowed down, and China's soybean procurement plans for February - March shipments are basically completed, with subsequent purchases shifting to the South American market, putting pressure on the external market. With the Chinese New Year approaching in two weeks, the oil mill's crushing and operation rate will gradually decline, and the pre - holiday stocking demand is coming to an end. Feed enterprises' bean meal inventories continue to increase. Overall, the DCE bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | January 30 | January 23 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1064.25 | 1067.50 | -3.25 | -0.30% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 451.00 | 448.00 | 3.00 | 0.67% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 483.00 | 477.00 | 6.00 | 1.26% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 81.26 | 71.46 | 9.81 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2767.00 | 2751.00 | 16.00 | 0.58% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2287.00 | 2235.00 | 52.00 | 2.33% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 480.00 | 516.00 | -36.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3120.00 | 3100.00 | 20.00 | 0.65% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3120.00 | 3100.00 | 20.00 | 0.65% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 353.00 | 349.00 | 4.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - US soybean export sales: As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 81.9 tons, compared with 244.6 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 3385.4 tons, with a sales progress of 79%, compared with 83.6% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 23.3 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 965.4 tons and an unshipped volume of 614 tons [8] - US soybean crushing profit: As of the week ending January 23, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.54 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.40 US dollars per bushel the previous week [8] - Brazilian soybean situation: As of January 24, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 99.1%, compared with 98.6% the previous week and 99.2% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 99%. The Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 6.6%, compared with 2.3% the previous week and 3.2% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 7%. Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to be 323 tons, lower than the previous estimate of 379 tons [9] - Argentine soybean situation: As of the week ending January 28, 2026, the Argentine soybean sowing was basically completed. The proportion of normal and excellent crops was 84%, compared with 87% the previous week and 75% in the same period last year. Forecasts show that the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area will be lower than normal in the next 15 days, but subsequent precipitation is expected to increase [9] - Inventory and consumption data in China: As of the week ending January 23, 2026, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 658.99 tons, a decrease of 28.34 tons from the previous week and an increase of 207.01 tons compared with the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 89.86 tons, a decrease of 4.86 tons from the previous week and an increase of 45.93 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 406.16 tons, a decrease of 92.32 tons from the previous week and an increase of 146.63 tons compared with the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 721.5 tons, a decrease of 50.6 tons from the previous week and an increase of 112.26 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week ending January 30, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 30.986 tons, including 5.77 tons of spot trading and 25.216 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 18.672 tons the previous week; the daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 19.42 tons, compared with 18.816 tons the previous week. The main oil mills' crushing volume was 229.61 tons, compared with 210.21 tons the previous week; the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days were 11.33 days, compared with 10.21 days the previous week [10] 3.3 Industry News - Canada's agricultural outlook: The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture expects the soybean planting area in the 2026/2027 season to increase by 2.6% to 2.401 million hectares, and the output to increase from 6.793 million tons in the 2025/2026 season to 7.6 million tons. The rapeseed planting area in the 2026/2027 season is expected to increase by 1.9% to 8.915 million hectares, but due to the return of yield to the average level, the output will decrease from a record 21.804 million tons in the 2025/2026 season to 19.2 million tons [12] - Brazilian soybean production and sales: The AgRural institution expects the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/2026 season to reach 181 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 180.4 million tons. As of Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 4.9% of the 2025/2026 soybean harvest, higher than 2% the previous week and 3.9% in the same period last year. Brazilian farmers are still hesitant to sell soybeans, and the current sales speed is slow. So far, farmers have only pre - sold 30.3% of the new soybeans, compared with 39% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 41.1% [13][16] - Other data: Brazil's soybean exports in the first four weeks of January were 1,521,682.57 tons, with a daily average export volume of 95,105.16 tons, a 96% increase compared with the daily average export volume in January last year. According to the Brazilian port export plan, the soybean exports in January will reach 348 tons, much higher than 110.3 tons in the same period last year, and it is expected to be 627.7 tons in February 2026. The total soybean exports from January to February 2026 will reach 989 tons, higher than 749.7 tons in the same period in 2025 [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the managed fund's net position in the CBOT, the spot price of bean meal in different regions, the spread between the May and September bean meal contracts, the precipitation and temperature in the Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress, the Argentine soybean sowing progress, the cumulative sales volume and weekly net sales volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill's crushing profit, the weekly average trading volume and pick - up volume of bean meal, the port and oil mill's soybean inventory, the oil mill's weekly crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, bean meal inventory, and the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days [17][18][21]