节前减产增加，双焦震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream steel mills are at a high level of pre - holiday maintenance, with weak hot metal production. Combined with the off - season of terminal demand, the demand for raw materials is poor. The coke production of steel mills has been maintained, with a slight increase in daily average coke output and a significant increase in inventory. The profitability of steel mills has decreased. [1][5] - In the middle reaches, the coking profit has rebounded, but pre - holiday production cuts by coking enterprises have increased, resulting in a decrease in coke output. The national average profit per ton of coke is - 55 (up 11 compared to the previous period) yuan/ton. [1][5] - In the upstream, the output of domestic coal mines has declined before the Spring Festival, the inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure has eased. [1][6] - Overall, due to the impact of environmental protection policies in some regions and the pre - holiday shutdown of upstream coal mines, the supply of coking coal and coke has shrunk. On the downstream side, affected by the weakening demand in the off - season and the increase in steel mill maintenance, the hot metal production remains at a low level, and the steel mill's coke inventory has accumulated. Although there is still a certain expectation of inventory replenishment before the holiday, the overall driving force is limited. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate. [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3128 | - 14 | - 0.45 | 5036448 | 2376275 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot Rolled Coil | 3288 | - 17 | - 0.51 | 1922037 | 1547118 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 791.5 | - 3.5 | - 0.44 | 1277262 | 555392 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1155.5 | - 1.5 | - 0.13 | 4894069 | 616871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1721.5 | - 0.5 | - 0.03 | 96984 | 38611 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Downstream: The steel mills are at a high level of pre - holiday maintenance, with weak hot metal production. The profitability of steel mills has decreased. The daily average hot metal output is 227.98 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons compared to the previous week. The daily average coke output is 47.01 (up 0.11 compared to the previous period) tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 85.91% (up 0.2). The coke inventory is 678.19 (up 16.55) tons, and the available days of coke are 12.54 days. [5] - Middle Reaches: The coking profit has rebounded, but pre - holiday production cuts by coking enterprises have increased. The national average profit per ton of coke is - 55 (up 11 compared to the previous period) yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 71.86% (down 0.55), the daily average coke output is 62.84 (down 0.47) tons, and the coke inventory is 84.39 (up 2.94) tons. [1][5] - Upstream: The output of domestic coal mines has declined before the Spring Festival, the inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure has eased. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 89.1%, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal is 197.8 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons compared to the previous period. The raw coal inventory is 549.6 tons, a decrease of 10.9 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal is 77.1 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared to the previous period. The clean coal inventory is 267.2 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports nationwide has decreased by 15 tons, and the inventory of coke at 18 ports has decreased by 6.19 tons. [1][6] 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival holiday situation of 523 coking coal mines across the country. Currently, there are 395 coal mines in production, with a total production capacity of 7.57 billion tons. Among the 395 coal mines in production, 388 coal mines have plans to stop production during the holiday, with a production - stopping capacity of 7.44 billion tons, affecting 1.868 million tons of raw coal output. [13] - On January 28, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. The price of wet - quenched coke was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke was raised by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on January 30, 2026. [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trends of coking coal and coke, the daily average output of independent coking plants and steel mills, capacity utilization rates, inventory situations, and ton - coke profits in different regions. [9][14][23]