铁矿周报：港库高位运行，铁矿震荡承压-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The port trade transactions are good, and steel mills' pre - Spring Festival restocking provides some support, with in - plant inventories rising rapidly. However, the molten iron output is weakly stable before the festival, and the daily consumption of iron ore is at a low level. The overseas shipments increased last week, the arrivals decreased month - on - month, the port clearance remained high, and the inventory continued to increase. It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile and pressured trend [1][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: The closing price is 3128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a decline of 0.45%. The total trading volume is 5,036,448 lots, and the total open interest is 2,376,275 lots [2] - SHFE hot - rolled coil: The closing price is 3288 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan, a decline of 0.51%. The total trading volume is 1,922,037 lots, and the total open interest is 1,547,118 lots [2] - DCE iron ore: The closing price is 791.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan, a decline of 0.44%. The total trading volume is 1,277,262 lots, and the total open interest is 555,392 lots [2] - DCE coking coal: The closing price is 1155.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The total trading volume is 4,894,069 lots, and the total open interest is 616,871 lots [2] - DCE coke: The closing price is 1721.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, a decline of 0.03%. The total trading volume is 96,984 lots, and the total open interest is 38,611 lots [2] Market Review - Demand side: Last week, the molten iron output was weakly stable. Before the festival, the daily consumption of iron ore was at a low level, the in - plant inventories increased rapidly, and steel mills' restocking provided some support. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and 1.02 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week and 9.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.53 million tons from the same period last year [4] - Supply side: Last week, overseas shipments increased, arrivals decreased month - on - month, port clearance remained high, and inventories continued to increase. The total global iron ore shipments were 2.9783 million tons, an increase of 0.0485 million tons from the previous week. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.3943 million tons, an increase of 0.1476 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 17.75826 million tons, an increase of 0.26173 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 0.34771 million tons, an increase of 0.02719 million tons [5] Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with market expectations [10] - According to the World Steel Association, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the statistics of the World Steel Association in December 2025 was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [10] - Brazil's Vale released its production and sales report for the fourth quarter of 2025, showing that its iron ore output in the fourth quarter was 90.403 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 4.2% but a year - on - year increase of 6%; the iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 84.874 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.3% but a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. Vale's total annual iron ore output in 2025 was 336 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [10] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the national steel mill profitability rate, daily average pig iron output, 247 steel mills' daily average molten iron output, national blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, global pig iron and crude steel output trends, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, and various iron ore inventory and port clearance volume charts [9][11]