沃什提名出任美联储主席，贵金属遭受重挫

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Last Friday, Wash's nomination as Fed Chair triggered hawkish expectations, leading to an epic plunge in the global precious metals market. COMEX silver futures price dropped by over 35% and fell below the $75/ounce mark, COMEX gold futures price dropped by nearly 13% and fell below the $4,700/ounce mark, and NYMEX platinum and palladium futures prices also dropped by over 20% during the session. Although the precious metals futures prices rebounded slightly at the end of the session, they still recorded the largest single - day decline in history [2][6]. - Although Wash's nomination requires Senate approval, it is basically certain that he will replace Powell whose term ends in May. Wash, an originally hawkish official, may bring significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework if he takes office. According to Deutsche Bank analysis, his policy may feature a combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction" [3][7]. - In the short term, the market will continue to digest the news of Wash's nomination, revise the previous expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the new Fed. The US dollar index will continue to rebound, and US Treasury yields will rise, putting continuous pressure on precious metals prices. Silver, which has seen a large increase in the previous period, will face greater adjustment pressure [3][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1,161.42 | 45.78 | 4.10 | 187,299 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1,163.99 | 53.64 | 4.83 | 163,308 | 265,356 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4,907.50 | - 75.60 | - 1.52 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 27,941 | 4,810 | 20.79 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 27,530 | 2,542 | 10.17 | 531,280 | 3,240,738 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 85.25 | - 18.01 | - 17.44 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 630.55 | - 55.35 | - 8.07 | 40,153 | 10,574 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 638.39 | - 43.11 | - 6.33 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2,178.20 | - 43.11 | - 21.46 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 464.05 | - 43.11 | - 6.81 | 19,151 | 10,574 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1,701.00 | - 43.11 | - 16.90 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Wash's nomination as Fed Chair triggered hawkish expectations, causing a sharp decline in the precious metals market. Although prices rebounded slightly at the end, they still recorded the largest single - day decline in history [2][6]. - Wash, an originally hawkish official, may bring significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework if he takes office. His policy may feature a combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction". However, some senators oppose his nomination [3][7]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% at the end - of - January meeting, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's "appointed" director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain [8]. - In the short term, the market will continue to digest the news of Wash's nomination, revise the previous expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the new Fed. The US dollar index will continue to rebound, and US Treasury yields will rise, putting continuous pressure on precious metals prices. Silver, which has seen a large increase in the previous period, will face greater adjustment pressure [3][10]. 3. Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 was 209,000, higher than the estimated 205,000 and the previous value of 200,000 (revised from 200,000 to 210,000). The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending January 17 was 1.827 million, lower than the market expectation of 1.86 million and the revised previous value of 1.865 million. The four - week moving average of initial jobless claims as of January 24 was 206,250, and the previous value was revised from 201,500 to 204,000 [11]. - The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill passed by the House of Representatives in a procedural vote, and the US federal government is facing another partial "shutdown" crisis. The operating funds of several federal departments will be exhausted on January 30 [11]. - The initial GDP of the eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate for the whole year but higher than the market expectation of 1.2%. Spain's GDP growth led with 2.6%, Germany's growth exceeded expectations at 0.6%, and France's growth of 1.1% was lower than expected [11]. - The year - on - year growth rate of Tokyo's core CPI in January slowed from 2.3% to 2%, lower than the expected 2.2%, and it was the second consecutive month of slowdown, weakening the expectation of the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [11]. - The World Gold Council shows that in 2025, the gold - buying speed of central banks around the world slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons, but it was still at a high level by historical standards. It is expected that the gold - buying volume in 2026 will further decline slightly to 850 tons. Meanwhile, retail and institutional investors have become the dominant force in gold buying, with investment demand surging by 84% to a record 2,175 tons, and the gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tons, ending four consecutive years of outflows [12]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, the inventory changes of COMEX and LBMA gold and silver, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver, the price differences between Shanghai futures gold and Shanghai gold T + D, Shanghai futures silver and Shanghai silver T + D, the internal and external price differences of gold and silver, the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio, the US inflation expectation, the relationship between gold price and various factors (such as US dollar, copper price, VIX index, crude oil price, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US real interest rate), the Fed's balance - sheet size, the US government debt size, the copper - to - gold ratio, the US dollar index and the euro - to - US dollar exchange rate, the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventory, the NYMEX platinum - to - palladium ratio, and the non - commercial net positions of platinum and palladium futures and options [13][23][33][42][43]