节前累库加快，期价震荡走势

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The macro - level policy in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with the compilation of the "15th Five - Year" plan to boost consumption and the implementation of consumption promotion actions [1][4][6] - Last week, the industrial data of the steel industry was mediocre. The output of rebar remained flat, apparent demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The data of hot - rolled coils changed little. Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, reducing steel supply. On the demand side, construction sites shut down, and trade transactions dropped significantly, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand in the steel market. Overall, the market is mainly in a volatile state, and future attention should be paid to inventory trends and policy changes. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage % | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3128 | - 14 | - 0.45 | 5036448 | 2376275 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3288 | - 17 | - 0.51 | 1922037 | 1547118 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 791.5 | - 3.5 | - 0.44 | 1277262 | 555392 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1155.5 | - 1.5 | - 0.13 | 4894069 | 616871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1721.5 | - 0.5 | - 0.03 | 96984 | 38611 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. The seasonal weakening of demand suppressed steel prices, and market sentiment fluctuations increased price volatility. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billets was 2940 (0) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3250 (- 20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3270 (- 20) Yuan/ton [4] - Some steel mills have introduced relatively favorable winter storage policies for traders, mainly the post - settlement model, which reduces traders' risks when prices fall. Some regions have lock - price policies with a price range of 3130 - 3170 Yuan/ton, and some policies include interest support [4] - Most short - process steel mills will shut down in February, with the most concentrated shutdown period from February 1st to 8th, about one week later than last year, indicating that there are still small profits in production [4] 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce plans to expand domestic demand, compile the "15th Five - Year" plan for consumption expansion, and promote the construction of a strong domestic market [1][4][6] - In February 2026, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is expected to be 23.79 million units, a 22.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Specifically, the production volume of household air conditioners is expected to be 11.49 million units, a 31.6% decrease; refrigerators are expected to be 6 million units, a 17% decrease; and washing machines are expected to be 6.3 million units, a 3.2% decrease [6] - As of January 21, 2026, 12 steel mills have released winter storage policies. A new steel mill has joined, with a winter storage period from February 10th to March 28th, 2026. There are regulations on price - locking and a 20 - Yuan/ton rebate policy. Winter storage loans accrue interest at an annual rate of 5% [6] - The shutdown and restart plans of 39 electric arc furnace steel mills show a pattern of "slow start and fast shutdown before the holiday, and cautious and delayed restart". The shutdown time is concentrated from late January to early February, about 3 - 5 days later than in 2025. The restart time is generally more cautious, with the earliest restart on February 23rd and most enterprises planning to restart around the Lantern Festival. Nearly half of the enterprises' restart times are yet to be determined, later than in 2025 [6] - In the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to find a new balance. Affected by the new policy, China's steel exports in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to decline by 15% - 20% compared to the 27.42 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 [6] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional spot price differences, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2022 to 2026 [9][10][11]