铝周报：沪铝或震荡偏强运行-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the Shanghai aluminum futures main contract AL2603 was mainly fluctuating, ranging from around 24,030 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 26,185 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,851.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% (calculated on a comparable basis). Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 6.4% compared to the previous year. In December, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month - on - month [3][11][34] - By industry, investment in the primary industry was 95.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%; investment in the secondary industry was 1,773.68 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; investment in the tertiary industry was 2,982.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 2.6% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 2.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 9.1%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [12] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 14,673,417.92 tons, a decrease of 430,931.65 tons from the previous month [15] - As of December 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, a decrease of 127,200 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% in the current month. Domestic production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15][16] - As of December 2025, monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 387,400 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at an average level compared to the past five years [16] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons from the previous week [25] - As of January 30, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 495,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.76% [25] - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 742,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 31,000 tons, in Wuxi was 292,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 14,000 tons, in Foshan was 167,000 tons, in Tianjin was 36,000 tons, in Shenyang was 8,000 tons, in Gongyi was 155,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 8,000 tons [25]