铜月报：铜价暴跌后，价格有望修复-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to recover after a sharp decline, and the copper price may show a mainly volatile and upward - trending market. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [1][4][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, with the price range between approximately 97,730 yuan/ton and 114,160 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 7398.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profits decreased by 3.9%, joint - stock enterprises' profits decreased by 0.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profits increased by 4.2%, and private enterprises' profits remained the same as the previous year [9] - In 2025, the profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 3.0 times year - on - year, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 22.6%, the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.5%, and the power and heat production and supply industry increased by 13.9% [10] - On January 30, US President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75% [12] 3.3 Supply Side - As of December 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. As of January 27, 2026, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 5.18 cents/pound, and the rough - smelting fee was - 50 dollars/kiloton [13] - As of January 28, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumao was 101,525 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 89,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,130 yuan/ton, maintaining a relatively high level in the past five years [18] 3.4 Demand Side - As of December 31, 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2291 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [21] 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 30, 2026, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 233,004 tons, an increase of 7,067 tons from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 176,075 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 23.74%. As of January 30, 2026, the COMEX copper inventory was 577,724 tons, an increase of 2,591 tons from the previous trading day. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area was 98,900 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week [24] 3.6 Outlook - The influencing factors of copper price trends include Chinese policies, supply, demand, and inventory. Chinese policies and supply have a relatively high impact on copper prices [30] - Considering various factors, the copper price may show a mainly volatile and upward - trending market. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [32]