铝周报：贵金属断崖下挫紧张情绪至铝价回调-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints Electrolytic Aluminum - In the short - term, due to the sharp drop in precious metals and the seasonal off - season of Spring Festival consumption, the futures price is expected to adjust at a high level. In the long - term, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts remains unchanged, supply constraints exist in the long - term, and the aluminum demand in new fields like energy storage, data centers, and new energy vehicles is growing explosively, so the upward trend of aluminum price remains optimistic [3][8] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, maintaining a high - level shock. The supply - side production capacity decreases slightly, the import window is closed, and the supply pressure is not large. The profit has slightly recovered, and enterprises' willingness to ship has increased. The demand side continues to weaken [3][9] 3. Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/30 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3173.5 | 3135.5 | - 38.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 24395 | 24695 | 300.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 3.75 | - 26.66 | - 22.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 507275 | 495725 | - 11550.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 141152 | 145071 | 3919.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 23816 | 24336 | 520.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 240 | - 70.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23858 | 24318 | 460.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 42 | 18 | 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 74.3 | 78.2 | 3.9 | tons | | Electrolytic Aluminum Theoretical Average Cost | 15883.79 | 15866.81 | - 17.0 | yuan/ton | | Electrolytic Aluminum Weekly Average Profit | 7932.21 | 8469.19 | 537.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 24000 | 24350 | 350.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23500 | 23700 | 200.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2919 | 3174 | 255.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3725 | 4088 | 363.0 | yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 67892 | 68206 | 314.0 | tons | [4] Market Review Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 24336 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot is 24318 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from last week. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, Trump plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, the US government may face a partial shutdown, US durable goods orders increased significantly in November 2025, the consumer confidence index in January decreased, and the trade deficit in November 2025 increased significantly. Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate dropped to 59.4%, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6] Cast Aluminum - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose to 58.9%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 314 tons [7] Market Outlook Electrolytic Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a rise in the US dollar index, the position of SHFE aluminum fluctuated. The supply of new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia increased slowly, the aluminum water ratio decreased, the aluminum processing operating rate dropped significantly, and the inventory increased. In the short - term, the price is expected to adjust at a high level, and in the long - term, the upward trend remains [8] Cast Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased, the demand weakened, some enterprises stopped production in advance for the Spring Festival, the price of cast aluminum increased rapidly, the inventory of the exchange increased. The supply pressure is not large, the profit has slightly recovered, and the demand continues to weaken, maintaining a high - level shock [9] Industry News - Baitong Energy plans to invest no more than $40 million in Angola to set up a subsidiary for electrolytic aluminum processing [10][11] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest about $437 million in Indonesia to build a 250,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project [14] - Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, with an expected annual output of 750,000 tons [14] - The exchange added two registered aluminum ingot brands with a total production capacity of 1 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, etc., which show the historical data and trends of relevant indicators [13][16][18]