降息预期或有修正，锌价调整压力增大

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures reached a high and then declined. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump as the new Fed Chair turned the market sentiment. Warsh advocates "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction", leading the market to expect a more hawkish Fed policy. The strengthening US dollar index and the sharp drop in precious metals dragged down the industrial metals. China's January PMI fell below the boom - bust line and was weaker than the seasonal average. [3][9] - Fundamentally, the previous supporting factors have weakened. With the US - Iran dialogue, the concerns about the zinc ore supply and energy price hikes have eased. Due to the off - season of domestic consumption and rising raw material prices, downstream enterprises began to take holidays at the end of January, and the开工 rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises decreased. [3][9] - On the supply side, the rising zinc price repaired the smelters' profits, and production was relatively stable. China has entered the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation period, and the fundamentals cannot support the current high price. However, the cold wave in the US pushed up the European natural gas price, increasing overseas smelters' production costs. During the long - term processing fee negotiation period, potential supply disruptions can support the price. [3][9] - Overall, Warsh's hawkish policy stance will push the US dollar to rebound, and the selling pressure on precious metals will spill over to industrial metals. The weakening demand before the Chinese Spring Festival is negative for the zinc price. In the short term, the futures price faces significant adjustment pressure. After the release of pessimistic sentiment, the rising overseas smelting costs and potential supply disruptions will limit the depth of the price adjustment. The market is currently highly volatile, and cautious trading is recommended. [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Trading Data - From January 23rd to January 30th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 24,585 yuan/ton to 25,835 yuan/ton, an increase of 1250 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3269 US dollars/ton to 3370 US dollars/ton, an increase of 101 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.52 to 7.67. [4] - The SHFE inventory decreased by 7997 tons to 65,154 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 110,000 tons. The social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2603) reached a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton last week, then closed at 25,835 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly gain of 5.08%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc reached 3575.5 US dollars/ton, then closed at 3370 US dollars/ton, with a weekly gain of 3.09%. [5] - In the spot market as of January 30th, zinc prices rose, smelters and traders actively sold, but downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices, and some had already taken holidays. The spot market turned to a slight discount. [6] - As of January 30th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 110,000 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 7997 tons to 65,154 tons. As of January 29th, the social inventory increased, with a decrease in Tianjin and Guangdong and an increase in Shanghai. [7] - In the macro - aspect, the US durable goods orders in November 2025 increased by 5.3% month - on - month, and the core durable goods orders increased by 0.5%. The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Iran and the US were in dialogue. Trump raised tariffs on South Korean goods and threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian planes. China's January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and comprehensive PMI was 49.8%. [7][8] 3. Industry News - On the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were reported at 1500 yuan/metal ton and 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, with the average remaining flat and decreasing by 4.25 US dollars/dry ton respectively. [11] - Southern Copper found a high - grade zinc and silver ore section in Mexico. Develop Global's Woodlawn copper - zinc mine in New South Wales achieved stable production. Glencore's zinc output in 2025 was 969,400 tons, a 7% increase from 2024. Fresnilloplc's zinc concentrate output in Q4 2025 was 27,500 tons, a 11% increase quarter - on - quarter. 29Metals' zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 was 3400 tons, a 72% increase quarter - on - quarter. South 32's zinc concentrate output in Q4 2025 was 10,400 tons, a 25% increase quarter - on - quarter. [12] - Starting from the close of trading on January 30, 2026, the daily price limit for alumina, lead, and zinc futures contracts was adjusted to 9%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 10%, and the general position margin ratio to 11%. [13] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, spot premiums and discounts, inventory levels of different exchanges and regions, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise开工 rates. [14][18][20]