金融期货早班车-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3] - In the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On January 30th, the four major A - share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to close at 14205.89 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.27% to close at 3346.36 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.12% to close at 1509.4 points. The market turnover was 28,624 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,970 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+3.44%), electronics (+0.68%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.65%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-7.8%), steel (-2.83%), and food and beverage (-2.78%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IH>IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,449/128/2,894 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale and retail investors had net inflows of - 303, - 293, 18, and 578 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 7, +13, - 50, and +44 billion yuan respectively [2] - On January 30th, the Treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0%, TF rose 0.01%, T rose 0.06%, and TL fell 0.23% [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was - 5.74, 8.12, - 4.66, and - 7.5 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were 0.58%, - 0.81%, 0.83%, and 2.04% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 96%, 84%, 70%, and 73% respectively [3] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various stock index futures contracts such as IC, IF, IH, and IM, including price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.05, and an IRR of 1.2%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 0.65bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.053, and an IRR of 1.27% [3] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL, including price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [8] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the import and export sentiment exceeded expectations, the real estate and social activity sentiment was lower than in previous periods, and the manufacturing and infrastructure sentiment was similar to previous periods [11]