Orient Securities·2026-02-02 02:16Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with support from inventory adjustments ahead of the holiday. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with a divergence in the rhythm between mining and salt ends. Futures contracts have dropped significantly, with the Wuxi 2605 contract down 16.65% to 149,200 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2605 contract down 18.36% to 148,200 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 2,070 USD/ton, down 144 USD from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected due to regulatory cooling and market fluctuations, with downstream demand stabilizing [12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals. For instance, Pilbara is evaluating the potential for increased production capacity at its Ngungaju plant, while CATL plans to build a lithium battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium Industry and other companies have announced significant changes in their profit forecasts, reflecting the impact of lithium price fluctuations and operational adjustments [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - In December, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 4% month-on-month, while hydroxide lithium production rose by 2%. The inventory showed structural adjustments, with a general increase in prices for lithium and cobalt materials. The average price for battery-grade carbonate lithium rose by 7.15% to a range of 161,000-182,000 CNY/ton, and battery-grade hydroxide lithium increased by 8.12% to 158,000-169,000 CNY/ton [18][19][67].