烧碱：成本支撑，未来预期较强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous core logic of shorting caustic soda profit was challenged as the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last after April. The market's expectation for the future is strong, as shown by the sharp rebound of caustic soda due to the price drop of liquid chlorine on Friday. In the short term, the caustic soda trend is strong, but the later warehouse receipt registration situation needs to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 600, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 1875, the 03 - contract futures price is 1975, and the basis is -100 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - On January 30, the liquid caustic soda prices of some enterprises in Shandong were lowered again, and the downstream purchase situation was average [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The previous logic of shorting caustic soda profit was based on strong liquid chlorine, declining caustic soda costs, and high production and inventory due to non - reduction of production by manufacturers not at cash - flow costs. However, this logic will be challenged as the short - term strength of liquid chlorine may end after April. - In terms of fundamentals, the high inventory of caustic soda makes the spot market weak before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, the over - supply of alumina suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda, but there will be incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production until they reach cash - flow costs. - Recently, the futures market is insensitive to spot price cuts. The shortage of warehouse receipts for the 02 contract causes a sharp rebound in the near - term contracts, and the price drop of liquid chlorine will lead to increased costs and large - scale production cuts in the far - term contracts, making the short - term caustic soda trend strong [2].