HTSC·2026-02-02 02:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the planting chain has shown significant excess returns during inflation cycles, with a total excess return of 140 percentage points and 126 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 index during five inflation periods [6] - Current inflation expectations are rising, driven by a 16% increase in Brent crude oil prices since January, which is expected to catalyze the planting chain [5][7] - The report suggests increasing allocation to the planting industry chain, particularly in corn and cotton, due to favorable price trends and low fund holdings in the sector [9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Longping High-Tech (000998 CH) with a target price of 12.77 and a "Buy" rating, and Denghai Seeds (002041 CH) with a target price of 12.06 and an "Overweight" rating [4][22] Market Trends - As of Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio for the agriculture/planting sector is at 1.18% and 0.07%, respectively, indicating a low allocation compared to historical levels [8][9] - The report notes that domestic corn and cotton prices have shown an upward trend since 2025, with January 2026 average prices up 10% and 11% compared to the lowest monthly averages in 2025 [7][9] Historical Performance - The analysis of past inflation cycles indicates that the planting and agricultural processing sectors typically outperform the market, with the planting sector achieving a cumulative excess return of 657% compared to the CSI 300 index over five inflation periods [20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery of core inflation indicators and the optimization of supply-demand dynamics will support price increases in the planting chain, further enhancing investment opportunities [7][9]