12月财政数据点评：收支承压，紧平衡加据

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, fiscal operations showed significant characteristics of "a sharp decline in revenue and a narrowing decline in expenditure." Throughout the year, the main fiscal indicators were "slightly short of revenue, lagging in expenditure, and an expanding fund gap," all of which did not fully meet the budget targets at the beginning of the year. Structural contradictions were prominent, with a significant decline in central revenue dragging the general public budget revenue into negative territory; the growth rate of fiscal expenditure continued to decline, and the pace of fund implementation was slow; weak land transfer income dragged down government - funded revenue and expenditure. In the future, under the tight fiscal balance, revenue repair still faces dual constraints of weak domestic demand and weak profitability, and the expenditure side relies more on accelerating fund allocation and forming physical work volume to hedge against downward pressure. The policy - making rhythm of "improving fund use efficiency and promoting the accelerated implementation of cross - year projects" should be closely monitored. Considering recent high - frequency infrastructure - related indicators, affected by multiple factors such as seasonal factors, capital pressure, and industry transformation, the operation is weak. It is expected that the first quarter may be an important window period for fiscal policy to stabilize growth [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fiscal Revenue - The growth rate of central revenue decreased significantly, dragging the fiscal revenue growth rate into negative territory. In 2025, the growth rate of general public budget revenue turned negative (-1.7%). Structurally, central fiscal revenue dropped significantly to -6.5%, with 11 consecutive months of negative growth, mainly due to insufficient economic recovery momentum and a low PPI leading to a contraction of the tax base. Local fiscal revenue increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% compared with the previous month, but mainly relied on the rebound of non - tax revenue and real - estate - related taxes, and its sustainability was questionable. In terms of rhythm, the annual fiscal revenue completion progress was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years (99.7%), and although slightly higher than 98.1% in 2024, the overall progress was slow. The core contradiction of the decline in revenue growth lies in the slowdown of industrial added - value growth, the negative growth of PPI throughout the year suppressing the tax base, combined with multiple pressures such as structural tax - reduction policies and the downturn of land finance [3] - The growth rate of tax revenue slowed down, and the drag of non - tax revenue increased. The growth rate of tax revenue decreased by 1 percentage point to 0.8% but remained positive, indicating a certain resilience of the tax source. The growth rate of non - tax revenue decreased by 7.6 percentage points to -11.3%, with 10 consecutive months of slowdown and falling into the negative growth range after August, significantly dragging down fiscal revenue, mainly due to the high base in the previous year and the adjustment of some administrative fee policies. Major tax types showed obvious differentiation. The growth rates of domestic value - added tax and enterprise income tax slowed down, confirming weak domestic demand and weak corporate profitability. The growth rate of domestic consumption tax declined, consistent with the slowdown of social retail growth, indicating insufficient consumption recovery momentum. Personal income tax maintained a relatively high growth rate, reflecting the relatively stable structure of residents' income. The growth rates of land value - added tax and deed tax improved slightly but remained in the negative growth range, indicating that real - estate investment and transactions were still in the bottom - building stage. Affected by the weakening of automobile consumption, the decline of vehicle purchase tax continued to expand. The growth rate of export tax rebates increased seasonally, while the decline of tariffs slightly expanded, reflecting the uncertainty of external demand. Against the background of high - level fluctuations in the equity market, the growth rate of stamp duty continued to decline [4] Fiscal Expenditure - The growth rate of fiscal expenditure declined continuously, showing the characteristic of "high in the front and low in the back" with pre - emptive policy implementation. In 2025, the fiscal expenditure growth rate was 1%, with 3 consecutive months of slowdown; the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure also dropped to 3.7%, with 5 consecutive months of decline. Structurally, the growth rates of central and local expenditures both decreased; the central expenditure growth rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.7%, with 7 consecutive months of slowdown; the local expenditure growth rate dropped to 0.2%, a new low for the year, mainly due to the high - base effect and the strengthening of local fiscal expenditure constraints. Overall, the annual expenditure growth rate was "high in the front and low in the back," indicating a significant pre - emptive policy implementation characteristic [6] - In terms of expenditure structure, the growth rates of people's livelihood and infrastructure - related expenditures generally showed a slowdown trend. The growth rate of people's livelihood - related expenditures continued to decline, with the growth rate of social security and employment expenditures slowing down for 4 consecutive months and the growth rate of education expenditures slowing down for 9 consecutive months. Infrastructure expenditures continued the negative - growth trend. Among them, the decline of expenditures on agriculture, forestry, and water affairs narrowed but remained at a relatively high level, being the biggest drag; the growth rate of expenditures on urban and rural community affairs improved at the end of the year but still had a cumulative negative growth for the whole year; the decline of expenditures on transportation affairs tended to expand; the growth rate of environmental protection expenditures slowed down [6] Government - Funded Revenue and Expenditure - Government - funded revenue and expenditure were significantly under pressure, and the completion progress was slow. In 2025, the growth rate of government - funded revenue further decreased from -4.9% to -7%, a new low in the second half of the year. The continuous shrinkage of land transfer income was the main reason, with the land transfer income in 2025 down 14.7% year - on - year. On the expenditure side, the growth rate of government - funded expenditures slowed down for 5 consecutive months to 11.3%. Throughout the year, the progress of government - funded revenue and expenditure was slow, with completion rates of 92% and 90% respectively, reflecting the "double squeeze" of the land and real - estate market on fiscal funds. The reduction of land transfer scale directly dragged down government - funded budget revenue, and combined with the simultaneous reduction of cost - related expenditures for land acquisition and storage, it formed a two - way squeeze effect under tight fiscal balance pressure. In addition, it is worth noting that although the issuance target of new special bonds was completed at 104.7%, the problem of lag in the formation of physical work volume by funds was prominent. It is estimated that the proportion of special - bond funds actually forming physical work volume in the annual government - funded expenditures may be less than half. The significant disconnection between "fund guarantee" and "physical work volume" made the expansion of broad fiscal policy fail to effectively drive fixed - asset investment, and it is urgent to improve the fund conversion efficiency [7]