国新国证期货早报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 30, the A-share market showed a mixed trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%, and the trading volume decreased by 397 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The prices of various futures products, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, etc., were affected by different factors such as market supply - demand, international production, and macro - market sentiment [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.8627 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on January 30, closing at 4706.34, a decrease of 47.53 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 30, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1723.6, up 21.3 from the previous day [2] - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation on January 30, closing at 1163.8 yuan, up 14.7 from the previous day [3] - The first - round increase in coke prices has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. The iron - water production decreased slightly this period, and the export volume in December increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4] - The output of sample mines of coking coal declined, the port inventory of Mongolian coal was about 4 million tons with high pressure, and China's annual import of coking coal in 2025 decreased year - on - year [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Indian Sugar Trade Association expects India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season to increase by 13% to 29.6 million tons, but the export volume will still be below the quota of 800,000 tons. Affected by this, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures declined [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined on January 30. The inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber changed accordingly [4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, Argentina's soybean crops are facing a potential yield reduction due to high - temperature drought, while Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the USDA expects a high - yield of 178 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal price is under pressure, and the futures price lacks a continuous upward drive [5] Live Pigs - On January 30, the live - pig futures contract LH2603 closed at 11,220 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change [5] Shanghai Copper - On January 30, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2603 closed at 103,680 yuan/ton. The market was affected by factors such as short - selling by the top 20 short - position holders, weak downstream procurement, and pre - festival risk aversion [5] Iron Ore - On January 30, the iron - ore futures contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 791.5 yuan. With an increase in Australian and Brazilian iron - ore supply, a decrease in domestic arrivals, and slow pre - festival restocking by steel mills, the iron - ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On January 30, the asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 0.38% at 3424 yuan. In February, the refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and the price is in a volatile state supported by cost [5] Logs - The logs futures contract 2603 opened at 789, closed at 798 on January 30, with a decrease of 125 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [5][6][7] Cotton - On January 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,770 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 46 lots. As of January 29, the cotton procurement rate was 99%, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [7] Steel - Before the Spring Festival, steel prices fluctuated slightly due to a lack of industrial contradictions and weak speculative demand. After the Spring Festival, the market still faces pressure, but policy expectations may provide some support [7] Alumina - The supply of alumina may decrease slightly during the holiday due to production shutdowns and maintenance, while the demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum production capacity stays high [7] Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of Shanghai aluminum remains stable as the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good and production capacity is high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season and pre - holiday factors, and social inventory is increasing [7]