格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillation" [2] Report's Core View - The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is large, and crude oil fluctuates sharply. Last week, methanol at ports had a slight inventory build - up, and inventory decreased in production areas.提货 during the Spring Festival holiday may weaken, and the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Methanol prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and high inventory may limit the upside. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2270 - 2380. The trading strategy is to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main 2605 contract of methanol fell 15 yuan to 2341 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 12 yuan to 2270 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 371 lots to 613,000 lots, and short positions increased by 44,528 lots to 739,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 89.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 52.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.6% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons compared with the previous data. Among them, inventory in East China increased by 4.76 tons, and inventory in South China decreased by 3.3 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24% [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 11.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. The olefin operating rate is 85.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 80.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% [2] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest at 60.44 tons, and the average import price was 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - Oil Price: The US and Iran keep the option of dialogue and consultation, and the supply risk concerns caused by the tense geopolitical situation have been alleviated, and international oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract is at 65.21, down 0.21 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract is at 70.69, down 0.02 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 15.9 to 482.9 yuan/barrel and fell 12.9 to 470 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is large, and crude oil fluctuates sharply. Last week, methanol at ports had a slight inventory build - up, and inventory decreased in production areas.提货 during the Spring Festival holiday may weaken, and the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Methanol prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and high inventory may limit the upside [2] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]