价格相对低位关注做多机会：玻璃二月报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to cautiously go long on glass [2][72]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the existence of negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level. There is still time for changes before the expiration of the main contract. With multiple positive news in the macro - real estate sector and the weakening of short - side strength, it is advisable to focus on the glass price range of 1030 - 1050 and cautiously go long. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash due to the expected cost reduction from natural soda [2][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Market Review: Spot Price Increase and Basis Turning Positive - Spot Price: As of January 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton (+10) in North China, 1,110 yuan/ton (+50) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The 05 contract of glass closed at 1,056 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly decline of 8 [13][14]. - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 64 yuan/ton (+68). The 05 - 09 spread was - 111 yuan/ton (-5). The spread between soda ash and glass was 148 yuan/ton (+14) as of January 30 [15][19]. 02. Supply - Demand Pattern: High Inventory and Overall Loss - Profit: The overall glass production is in a loss state. The cost of natural gas production process is 1,568 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a gross profit of - 388 yuan/ton (-10); the cost of coal - gas production process is 1,169 yuan/ton (+4), with a gross profit of - 149 yuan/ton (+6); the cost of petroleum coke production process is 1,109 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a gross profit of 1 yuan/ton (+50) [23]. - Supply: The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 150,135 tons/day (+600), with 213 production lines in operation. One production line was restarted last week [25]. - Inventory: As of January 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,256.4 million weight boxes (-65.2). Inventories in North China, Central China, East China, Southwest, and some factory warehouses decreased, while that in South China increased slightly [29]. - Deep - processing: On January 29, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 99% (-6%). On January 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 41.2% (-2.4%). In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [31]. - Demand: - Automobile: In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 units; sales were 3.272 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 units. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.337 million units, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [35]. - Real Estate: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; new construction area was 53.13 million square meters (-19%); construction area was 38.24 million square meters (-47%); commercial housing sales area was 94 million square meters (-17%). From January 19 to January 25, the total trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.43 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. In December, real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [45]. - Import and Export: In December, China's float glass imports were 292,400 weight boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 67%), and exports were 1.7394 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 39%) [47]. - Cost - Soda Ash: - Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,235 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,240 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,425 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. The 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,204 yuan/ton (+6) last Friday, and the basis of the soda ash Huazhong 05 contract was 36 yuan/ton (-6) [50][51]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1,307 yuan/ton (+8), with a gross profit of - 88 yuan/ton (+8); the cost of the co - production method was 1,755 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 27 yuan/ton (+14) [55][57]. - Production and Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons), including 421,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons) and 362,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons). The loss volume was 145,900 tons (a month - on - month increase of 24,700 tons). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 1,779 pieces (a month - on - month increase of 1,779 pieces). As of January 30, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5442 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons), including 716,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons) and 828,100 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 3,600 tons) [64]. - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 401,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 358,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,900 tons. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 97.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.92%. In December, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 27.2 days [69]. 03. Investment Strategy: Try to Go Long at Low Prices - Investment Strategy: Cautiously go long. The main logic is that although there are negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level. There is still time for changes before the expiration of the main contract. With positive news in the macro - real estate sector and the weakening of short - side strength, focus on the glass price range of 1030 - 1050 and cautiously go long. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [2][72].