螺纹：震荡格局延续区间交易为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In February, the shock pattern of rebar will continue, and trading within a range is recommended. The price of rebar is expected to have limited room for both gains and losses, with a neutral to slightly low valuation. The global uncertainty has increased, and the domestic market may be in a policy vacuum in the short term. The demand for steel will decline more significantly in February due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the inventory accumulation speed will accelerate. The profit of steel mills is currently acceptable, and attention should be paid to the change in production. The raw material side has some support for prices, but the supply - demand pattern of raw materials is relatively loose [3][4][61] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review: Commodity Prices Rose Generally, while Black Products Performed Dull 3.1.1 Black - Spot - In January, the spot prices of black products showed a differentiated trend. Among finished products, rebar prices declined, hot - rolled coil prices remained stable, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened. Among raw materials, scrap steel and coking coal strengthened, iron ore prices declined, and coke prices first fell and then rose, remaining flat month - on - month [12] - The price changes of specific varieties in January are as follows: Shanghai rebar decreased by 50 yuan (-1.52%), Shanghai hot - rolled coil remained unchanged (0.00%), Jiangyin scrap steel increased by 80 yuan (3.92%), iron ore (Platts 62%) decreased by 12 yuan (-1.50%), Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged (0.00%), and Ganqimao coking coal increased by 70 yuan (6.25%) [13] 3.1.2 Black - Futures - In January, black futures prices first rose and then fell, showing an inverted V - shaped trend. Among finished products, rebar was weaker than hot - rolled coil, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened. Among raw materials, iron ore prices rose slightly, and coking coal and coke strengthened significantly, with coking coal closing up 4.60% [15] - The price changes of specific futures indexes in January are as follows: rebar increased by 15.00 (0.48%), hot - rolled coil increased by 22.00 (0.67%), iron ore increased by 0.40 (0.05%), coke increased by 31.70 (1.87%), and coking coal increased by 51.20 (4.60%) [16] 3.1.3 Futures Market - In January, commodity prices rose generally. In the industrial products sector, non - ferrous metals > energy and chemicals > black products [20] 3.2 Outlook: Faster Inventory Accumulation, Pay Attention to Production Changes 3.2.1 Overseas Macro - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January, maintaining the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%. US inflation in December was weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate declined slightly. On January 30, US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and the precious metals sector declined significantly [28] 3.2.2 Domestic - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and after excluding real estate development investment, it decreased by 0.5%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected that policies will be more proactive, and boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand may be the key directions [33] 3.2.3 Domestic Demand - Infrastructure - In December 2025, the investment in broad - based infrastructure continued to decline, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. In 2026, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, corresponding supporting policies are expected [38] 3.2.4 Domestic Demand - Real Estate - From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, the housing construction area decreased by 10% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 20.4% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry [39] 3.2.5 Domestic Demand - Manufacturing - Since the second half of 2025, the monthly investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry has turned negative, and there is significant differentiation among industries. In 2026, the anti - involution policy may continue to have a negative impact on relevant industries, while the policies of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in are expected to continue, but part of the later demand may have been overdrawn. Overall, the manufacturing investment in 2026 is still under pressure, but there will be differentiation among industries [43] 3.2.6 External Demand - In 2025, the export structure was adjusted, with a decrease in hot - rolled coil exports and an increase in other varieties. In December 2025, the Chinese government adjusted the export license management of some steel products. Referring to the situation in 2007, steel exports may experience a phased decline [44][49] 3.2.7 Supply - In 2025, steel production mainly fluctuated with profits. In 2026, the impact of policies on the supply side may increase [50] 3.2.8 Supply - Demand Deduction - In January, the demand for rebar weakened seasonally, production increased slightly, and inventory gradually accumulated, which is currently at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for steel will decline more significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed will accelerate. The profit of steel mills is currently acceptable, and attention should be paid to the change in production [55] 3.3 Strategy: The Shock Pattern Continues, and Trading within a Range is the Main Approach - Based on the review of January and the outlook for February, it is expected that the price of rebar will continue the shock pattern in February, with limited room for both gains and losses. Traders should conduct range - based trading according to the valuation level [61]