全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | US Dollar | Bullish | | US Stocks | Sideways | | A-Shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Sideways | [24] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has triggered significant market volatility. The short-term trend of various assets will be affected by factors such as monetary policy expectations, economic data, and market sentiment. [5][25] - The US economy maintains resilience, but there are still uncertainties in inflation and employment. The domestic economic recovery faces challenges, and the real estate market remains weak. [68][94] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, with the US's military threats against Iran and sanctions on Cuba potentially disturbing the market. [5] - The Fed's January interest rate meeting kept rates unchanged, but short-term rate cut willingness has declined. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has led to significant market fluctuations. [5] - China's January PMI weakened, indicating that the domestic economic recovery is still full of twists and turns. The bond market remains in a sideways trend, and A-shares face short-term回调 pressure. [5] 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Global stock markets had mixed performance this week. Developed markets such as the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225 had different trends, while emerging markets like the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index also showed varying performances. [7][8] - MSCI indices showed differentiation, with emerging markets outperforming developed and frontier markets, mainly driven by the weakening US dollar. [8] 3.2.2 Currency Markets - The US dollar index rebounded from a low, and the RMB exchange rate index slightly depreciated, while the RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Emerging market currencies showed differentiation, and developed country currencies generally appreciated. [9] 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Global major developed country 10-year government bond yields fluctuated, mainly affected by concerns about Japan's aggressive fiscal policy. Emerging market country government bond yields also showed different trends. [15] 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market rose and then fell this week, with significant increases in energy prices and sharp corrections in precious metals. The domestic commodity market mostly recorded gains. [22] 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair and the decline in short-term rate cut expectations. Silver is also expected to have further downward space. [24][25] 3.3.2 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to remain in a high-level sideways trend in the short term, with increased volatility. The market's risk appetite will be affected by factors such as corporate earnings and commodity market fluctuations. [24][42] 3.3.3 A-Shares - A-shares are expected to experience short-term corrections and will depend on the strength of the economy and policies in the medium term. The long-term bull market requires fundamental support. [24][52] 3.3.4 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to remain in a sideways trend, with limited upward space due to potential negative factors in the future. [24][58] 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High-Frequency Economic Data - The US economy maintains resilience, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate at 7.1%. [68] - The US inflation expectation has rebounded, but short-term inflation concerns have not significantly increased. The employment market remains resilient, with the number of continued and initial jobless claims remaining stable. [73] - The Fed's January interest rate meeting paused rate cuts, and the market's rate cut expectations have changed little. It is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year. [80] 3.4.2 Domestic High-Frequency Economic Data - The real estate market remains weak, with the secondary housing market showing signs of volume increase but still not exceeding seasonal levels. [90] - The economic data generally shows a pattern of weakening总量, strong supply and weak demand in terms of structure, and weaker domestic demand than external demand. [94] - The December financial data shows that the private sector's willingness to borrow is low, but there are also some positive changes in corporate financing demand. [99] - The December PPI and CPI continued to recover, and inflation is expected to rise in the future. [106] - The December import and export year-on-year growth rates exceeded expectations, and both exports and imports are expected to continue to improve in the future. [112]