综合晨报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The impact of the current US - Iran conflict on crude oil prices is more of a phased and pulsed nature rather than a trend [2] - After the correction of precious metals, they may enter a high - level consolidation phase [3] - Most commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, showing different trends of volatility and consolidation [2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Crude Oil - The geopolitical premium brought by Iran's military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz has been mostly reversed. Brent and WTI crude oil fell to $67/barrel and $63/barrel respectively. The US - Iran conflict has a phased impact on oil prices [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Supported by geopolitical conflicts, fuel oil maintains a strong and volatile operation. The low - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure as the cold wave ends, and the overall supply shows a slight increase [22] Asphalt - Expected to follow the decline of crude oil. Supply pressure is limited, downstream consumption has improved, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong [23] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a historical - level adjustment on Friday. After the correction, they may enter a high - level consolidation phase [3] Base Metals Copper - The price of copper in the US market continues to fall towards the MA40 moving average. The overall global visible inventory of copper is high, and the price may be adjusted around the MA60 moving average around the Spring Festival [4] Aluminum - Affected by the decline of precious metals, the non - ferrous metals as a whole are weak. Pay attention to the support at 23,800 yuan. Also, pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply chain [5] Zinc - High zinc prices suppress downstream demand. In 2026, the supply of zinc will exceed demand. In the short - term, there is cost support, and the price may oscillate to form a top [8] Lead - The sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector turns short. The price of lead oscillates in the range of 16,800 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel drops from a high level. The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the actual transaction is weak. The inventory of steel mills is low, and traders are willing to hold up prices [10] Tin - The price of tin is volatile. The inventory in Steel Union's warehouse has increased. The strategy of selling call options last week has achieved high returns [11] Aluminum Oxide - The operating capacity of domestic aluminum oxide remains high, and the market is in a state of significant oversupply. The cash - cost support is low, and the spot price needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [7] Chemicals Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The decline of oil prices drags down the trading sentiment of the propylene market. The downstream is on the sidelines, and the trading volume of polyethylene is weak. The inventory of polypropylene is slightly low, and the supply of spot resources is tight [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - Affected by sentiment and exports, PVC shows a strong trend. The inventory of manufacturers decreases, and the social inventory increases. Caustic soda shows an oscillating and strong trend, but there is pressure due to high inventory [29] PX and PTA - Although oil prices are strong, the prices of PX and PTA decline. There are expectations of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there may be opportunities for long - position based on PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations [30] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory increases, and the price is blocked at 4,000. In the second quarter, there are expectations of centralized maintenance and demand recovery, but in the long - term, the price is under pressure [31] Short - fiber and Bottle Chips - The supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is good, but the downstream orders are weak. The processing margin of bottle chips has been repaired, but there is long - term capacity pressure [32] Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The net sales volume of new - season US soybeans has decreased significantly. Pay attention to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil decline. They are affected by macro factors and the overall commodity market atmosphere, and there are risks of volatility [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Before the sowing of new - season Canadian crops in late April, pay attention to the sowing area forecast data on March 5 and the weather in the sowing area. The price may return to the range - bound trend in the short - term [38] Corn - The overall grain - selling progress in the country has exceeded 50%. The price of Dalian corn futures may oscillate in the short - term [40] Livestock and Poultry Products - The price of live pigs may have a secondary bottom - seeking in the long - term. The price of eggs may strengthen after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of cotton is oscillating, and the short - term sugar price faces pressure. The apple price oscillates, and the wood price runs at a low level. The pulp fundamentals are weak [41][42][43][44][45][46][47] Others Shipping - The market of the Container Freight Index (European Line) is strong last week. After the pre - holiday collection ends, the freight rate is expected to decline after the holiday. The impact of the Middle East conflict on the Red Sea shipping route needs further observation [21] Financial Futures - The A - share index futures decline, and the performance of treasury bond futures is differentiated. The A - share market needs to pay attention to the performance of sectors with performance support, and the treasury bond futures may oscillate in a box in the short - term [48][49]